Real Wx Solutions!

July 20th Weather Discussion CAR to the East, Trough to the West

2009-07-19T20:36:00.000-04:00

July 20th Weather Discussion

CAR to the East, Trough to the West

The weather today will basically be another pleasant day across the region. For the most part the day should be dry. The trough that has been situated over the Great Lakes is going to start to lift off to the northeast. Meanwhile the CAR (Central Atlantic Ridge) will begin to start to move towards the west. The skies should mainly be partly sunny across the region but there could be a shower or thunderstorm across the region any given time during the afternoon and or evening.
As far as temperatures are concerned across the region..mid 70s to around 80 in the state of Maine. Across the interior northeast mid 70s to around 80. Into southern new england and SE PA into NJ, low to mid 80s. To the south of the PA/MD line lower 80s. Western PA in the 70-80 range. All and all should be a relatively, dry and pleasant day.

July 19th High temp @ KABE 80

July 21st Severe Weather Potential

2009-07-19T19:57:00.001-04:00

PARAMETERS CAPE 1000-2000
LI-2 to -6
Lapse Rates 5.5-6.5
800-300 MB Shear 25-30 knots

Triggers..

Mean trough situated over the Great Lakes starting to lift out to the Northeast..S/Ws or impulses embedded within the flow around the trough..CAR (Central Atlantic Ridge) stretching towards the east coast providing a warm and increasingly humid air mass along the east coast and slightly inland...
At this point and time I am not expecting alot of reports but rather more isolated in nature!

Daily Discussion For July 19th We have stopped sliding:) Its about time!

2009-07-18T19:46:00.001-04:00

Daily Discussion For July 19th

We have stopped sliding:) Its about time!
There is one word to sum up todays weather! Pleasant!If you like weather that consists of sunny skies and if you like weather that consists of pleasantly warm temperatures, then you are going to want to go outside and do your favorite activity out under the sun! Because that is what todays weather will feature! Sunny skies.

Temperature wise across the region will also be very pleasant. Across the interior regions of the NE up into the state of Maine temperatures will be between 70-80. Further south across Southern New England into Se PA 80-85, except for Cape Cod in the 70s. Further to the west in western PA.. 70-80. South of PA..on the western side 70-80. On the eastern side...looks like mid 80s.

High temp july 18th @ KABE 78

July 18th Daily Discussion

2009-07-17T22:12:00.000-04:00

July 18th Daily Discussion

Going to tbe bottom of the Chute? Depends Where You Are!

Some of us will be going to the bottom..still others of us have started to slide..however...being held up from sliding completely to the bottom. So what does this mean? What is on tap for today?
Well, across the northern New England area..this is one region that has never actually climbed the ladder and once again they are stuck at the bottom of a chute. Their region once again will have the best chance for showers and thundershowers as impulses rotate around the ULL and keep their region wet and cooler then normal. For this region-summer has still yet to happen.
Further to the south..I believe most regions will wake up to cloudy skies...giving away to partial clearing. Sunshine by the afternoon should be pretty much felt all over but the northern regions (NNE)...I would not rule out the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm but by and far the majority of the region will be dry!
Temperatures are also going to be a contrast as well. Up across Maine temperatures will be in the low 60s to lower 70s. The rest of NNE into interior NY into central PA..temperatures will be in the 70-80 range. Southern New England into SE PA/NJ, low to mid 80s. Western PA...ones that have hit the bottom...60 to around 70. Further to the south... below the PA/MD border-eastern side mid to upper 80s to near 90..Western side...70-80. All and all it will be a pretty pleasant day with lower humidity across the region! Until tomorrow!

July 17th High @ KABE 85 degrees

Severe Weather Potential for July 17th

2009-07-17T01:04:00.002-04:00

A cold front moved across the region yesterday during the afternoon and evening. This cold front has stalled to the south and has become stationary. This stationary front during the afternoon into the evening will back up into the area as a warm front. This will bring some warmer air across the eastern side with temps in the 80s. Meanwhile another cold front will be approaching the region late on friday.
Along the original stationary front a wave of low pressure will develop. This low pressure area looks to move over Southeast PA before moving to the east and dissipating.
CAPE levels are marginal at best with 500-1500 generally being the range and the LI is anywhere from 0 to -4, which again is very marginable. However...shear looks to be decent across the area once again with 30 knots + and lapse rates are on the order of 6.0-7.0 across the region.
With another cold front approaching the region this could serve off as a trigger to support severe weather. Best area for severe weather will be southern sections....

July 17th Weather Discussion Falling down the Chute!

2009-07-16T21:46:00.001-04:00

July 17th Weather Discussion

Falling down the Chute!

Today is going to be like falling down the chute in the game of Chutes and Ladders. Or perhaps sliding down a candy cane in Candy Land. However..you want to describe it..temperatures are going to take a step back compared to yesterday! Yesterday was indeed a day that felt like summer! Hot & Humid! KABE made it to 88 at the airport, Philadelphia 91..Hellertown PA , where i was yesterday-93! It was hot!
Today, the weather once again will become more "pleasant" but with pleasant comes cooler temperatures. Well, pleasant will not apply across the usual areas of Northern and Central NJ as they will be facing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. The rest of us should be under Partly Sunny Skies...Slightly less humidity along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. However..i feel the day will be mainly rain free!
Temperatures across the region ..upper 60s to mid 70s across Maine...Across the rest of Northern and Central new england 70-80..Further south into southern New England...into south east and south central PA..low to mid 80s..Further west across western Pa 70-80. To the south of PA/MD Mid to upper 80s.

July 16th Weather Discussion At the top of the Ladder-Looking Down!

2009-07-15T20:12:00.001-04:00

July 16th Weather Discussion

At the top of the Ladder-Looking Down!

Once again the weather has taken us to the top of the ladder and we stand looking down as we get ready to take a plunge. However..before we take that plunge we have some heat & humidity to deal with. The weather today is going to be the result of a warm front pushing thru the region bringing heat and humidity to the area. This warm front however will be followed by a cold front later in the evening. The result of the warm & humid air and the strong cold front approaching spells out=thunderstorms. To find out whether they are going to be severe in your area, please see the appropiate thread :)
As far as temperatures are concerned, we will be looking at warmer air across the majority of the region. There always seems to be an exception to this and once again mother nature will not let us down to that exception.That exception will be northern new england where the temperatures will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Heading towards the Southeast into Southern New England, temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Travelling further to the south to NYC and then into east central PA and SE PA into NJ temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s and it is not out of the question that some locations could exceed the 80s and hit 90. Keep in mind that dewpoints will be in the 60s to near 70 so it is going to feel like we are stuck in the muck. To the west into western PA and western NY upper 70s to mid 80s. To the south of the PA/MD border..Mid 80s to lower 90s.
If you are out and about travelling or doing outdoor activities today...Keep an eye to the sky and with the humidity levels keep a bottle of water on you at all times. Dehydration is quite common on days like today! Otherwise enjoy the weather!

High temperature July 15th @ KABE was 83

Pattern Update for the week of the 19-25th

2009-07-15T19:28:00.000-04:00

More Out of the box thinking on the pattern for the week of the 19th-25th of July...

Where we are at currently..and then going :)

Currently we have a ridge buiding into the region with the zonal flow becoming dominant for the rest of today into friday. At the same time we have another powerful trough with its attending cold front moving thru the region for the weekend. This trough looks to amplify and produce cooler temperatures once again across the Northeast region. However..this time around...there is a different player on the field. While the trough amplifies over the Northeast..the CAR steps onto the field and starts to move westward. For those that do not know, CAR=Central Atlantic Ridge....
Current thinking is that the Central Atlantic ridge will progress westward and will cause the trough over the Northeast to lift up and kind of "retrograde" back over the west-central Great lakes region. This will allow the coolest of air to be centered over the GL region into perhaps western areas of the NE. Meanwhile, along the east coast...a southwesterly flow will set up and bring warmer air up the east coast. The timing on this looks to start taking place around the monday -tuesday time frame. At this time then it looks like the CAR could potentially become the dominant player.
Two effects this would have on the weather.
1. Great Lakes region to the western parts of the NE will experience the cooler weather.
2. To the east of the trough..southwesterly flow will cause warmer air to ride up along the coast and slightly inland.
This could set up a good potential for severe weather with the trough set up over the GL region.

So in a sense the TZT will continue but with an additional player involved and the trough located further west..
The question that needs to be answered and will work on this over the days ahead..is..does the CAR evolve into a WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) ..and if so..when?

Day 1 Severe Outlook

2009-07-15T14:04:00.001-04:00

Day 1 outlook..I have broken down this map into two sections. The latest guidance is suggesting that the better parameters will be further east.

Essentially warm and humid air is building into the region as I am typing this. Just came back from a walk and its quite muggy for only being 79 degrees as of 1 PM...this is due to a warm front approaching the region..this warm front will push thru the region and be followed by a cold front. Cold front associated with a trough that will be once again heading into the Northeast..This clashing of air masses is going to create what could potentially be a decent severe weather outbreak along the east coast.
Latest NAM has CAPE values of 1500-2500 over eastern PA stretching into central NY and then moving east by 00z tomorrow (thursday evening) into the NYC area. Lapse rates between 6,0 and 6.5 with Bulk shear of 30 knots +..Dewpoints will also be in the 60s to near 70. All this spells potential for hail and damaging winds.

July 15th Weather Discussion Game of chutes & Ladders..Is this CandyLand?

2009-07-14T22:40:00.000-04:00

July 15th Weather Discussion
Game of chutes & Ladders..Is this CandyLand?

Once again folks we are essentially going to start climbing a ladder temperature wise. However, before I get to the temperatures , lets talk about the weather. Another pleasant day on tap. Mostly sunny skies should be the result of the weather across the region. However, dewpoints will be on the rise and a warm front will be approaching the region. With this warm front approaching the region..there is an outside chance of showers and thunderstorms. However...most of the region should be rain free majority of the time.
Temperature wise mid 60s to low 70s thru the state of Maine. Mid to upper 70z thru out the rest of Northern and central New England. Heading further south and east into Southern New England temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low to mid 80s across SE PA into NJ and then westwards thru out central and western PA. South of the PA/MD border highs in the mid and upper 80s ..with some locales touching 90 degrees.
So basically another pleasant day on tap. However...starting to climb the ladder. Now most times we have climed the ladder..a few days later the temps fell thru the Chute. Stay tuned to find out if we fall thru the Chute and when we fall thru the Chute.
Daytime high for July 14th was 78 degrees @KABE

July 16th Severe Weather Update

2009-07-14T19:04:00.002-04:00

At this point and time after viewing the latest guidance between the NAM & GFS & latest SREF..I see no reason to change the map other then stepping up the day 3 outlook to day 2..

July 14th Daily Weather Discussion We Tap Another Pleasant Day In The TZT Pattern

2009-07-13T20:33:00.001-04:00

July 14th Daily Weather Discussion

We Tap Another Pleasant Day In The TZT Pattern

Another beautiful day of weather is on tap for the majority of the region. The only exception to this rule will be Northern New England. Unfortunately, they have been too close to the vicinity of the troughs and S/W's that set up residence over Southeast Canada. So this being the case there temperatures will be cooler and they have the chance showers and thunderstorms once again.
For the rest of the area it will be mostly sunny skies and pleasantly warm or pleasantly cool weather conditions.
As far as temperatures are concerned...The NW side of NY, up thru VT, NH into Maine will be in the 60-70 range. The mountains might not get out of the 40s. Yep, believe it or not it is July. Southern side of Maine upper 60s to lower 70s. Heading south interior NY, low to mid 70s..Over to the east in Southern New England..upper 70s to lower 80s. Further to the south into SE PA, east central PA, NJ..low to mid 80s. Further south below the PA/MD border along the eastern side mid to upper 80s. To the west below the border, upper 70s to mid 80s.Western Pa..70-80. The weather has been serving us up some lovely days so I hope you enjoy them as much as i have! Until tomorrow!
July 13th High temp @ KABE 79

July 16th Severe Potential Zone

2009-07-13T19:48:00.001-04:00

This situation reminds me of the situation that we just went thru a few days ago. A vigours S/W will be moving across Southern Canada...with its attending trough and attending cold front. Meanwhile out ahead of the cold front...once again warm & humid air will be spreading its way to the north and east, say thank you to a ridge building into the region on tuesday and wednesday. The air behind this front is going to be cooler with the air out ahead of it. Anywhere from 10-20 degrees difference depending on where you reside in the Northeast. The clashing of the two air masses once again is going to present a severe weather potential. Once again I do not expect the warmest of air to make its way to Northern Maine..so for the time being I have left them out of the potential severe zone.

At the moment I am also not focusing too much on the Parameters because just as the last time, they will change back and forth between now and then. This is my day 3 outlook and there is potential that this could just become my Day 1 outlook!

Isolated Severe for July 13th

2009-07-13T00:12:00.002-04:00

After evaluating the 00z NAM and the 00z GFS...both models seem to want to put across a very low chance of severe weather in two different areas....The NAM is showing capes of around 500-1500 range while the GFS is showing 1000-2000 range in SE PA...
While..my personal thought are that the secondary front that will be coming thru is going to be weak..the GFS does have decent LI -2 to -6...Decent Lapse rates...6.5-7.0 and also decent shear.. 35=40 knots across the area. The GFS & NAM both develop a S/W to the south of the PA/MD border and move it ENE off the coast. While the above is decent-there really is not all that much of a trigger but with the cold pool of air aloft...a trough in the vicinity...and a secondary front coming thru..it is possible that with the day time heating, especially along the SNE coast from NYC to southern Jersey and delaware that there could be some isolated storms that contain hail.
I am certainly not expecting a large amount of reports...quite possibly there will not be any reports but at the same time I also do not want to get burned by not doing a map.

So lets see how this works out!
Up in the state of Maine..i think the main threat will be heavy rain with any stronger cells that develop there in association with the front coming thru and the S/W in the vicinity of Southeastern Canada, spinning and rotating around.

July 13th Weather Discussion Were we here before? Indeed we were!

2009-07-12T19:15:00.001-04:00

July 13th Weather Discussion

Were we here before? Indeed we were!

There is some truth to the saying that weather has a habit of repeating itself. Thats exactly what is going on right now. I have been referring to it as TZT (trough&zonal&trough) . We have a trough currently over the region. However, this trough is situated more over southeast Canada while its influences are being felt in the northeast. All this essentially leads to a pleasant day most everywhere, but, you guessed it northern new england. This is because they are situated closer to the trough so they continue the chance at scattered showers and perhaps some thunder. The rest of us will essentially be enjoying sunny skies.
Temperature wise will continue to be below normal across the northern viewing area with temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s. Southern New England to East Central Pa and south east PA low to mid 80s. Interior regions of NY and western PA..low 70s to around 80. South of PA/MD border mid and upper 80s. Get outside and enjoy this absolutely gorgeous weather!

July 12th high temperature at KABE was 78

Pattern Update for Week Of July 12th-19th

2009-07-12T11:59:00.001-04:00

Theres no doubt in my mind that this July has the potential to go down as one of the coolest Julys across parts of the northeast into the Mid Atlantic. This being due to the persistancy of trough-zonal-trough or what I will refer to as TZT. This TZT pattern looks to continue over the forseeable future with perhaps a change towards the last 10 days of the month.

As previously mentioned a mid level ridge would build into the region bringing more warm and humid air. And then this mid level ridge would be then followed with another trough that would situate itself over SE Canada and then amplify and effect parts of the Northeast.. This is where we are at currently with what is happening.

Looking into the forseaable future it looks like this TZT is going to continue..The next couple days look to consist of mainly a zonal pattern with this trough situated over SE CANADA into the northeast and northern Mid Atlantic. This trough looks to start to move out and will be replaced again by a ridge that should start to build into the region Tuesday to Wednesday this week. This ridge again will cause the warmth and humidity to once again come into the mid atlantic and the northeast. However, by the weekend another trough of low pressure is going to head across the southern tier of Canada and amplify and once again effect the northeast with cooler temperatures. So essentially what we are dealing with is a TZT pattern and thru the next 10 days this looks to continue...
So essentially the breakdown looks like this over the next ten days....
Northern & Central New England will remain below normal fluctuating to seasonal when mid level ridges build in.
Southern New England will remain seasonal to below normal with potential to be above normal with ridges.
Northern Mid Atlantic seasonal to slightly below to slightly above possible with ridges
Southern Mid Atlantic seasonal to slightly above normal..
This pattern potentially looks to break in the last 10 days of the month..however..thats the really long range and do not want to speculate at this point out that far.

July 11th Weather Discussion Lets reverse shall we?

2009-07-12T01:12:00.001-04:00

July 12th Weather Discussion

Lets reverse shall we?

By the time the majority of us wake up this morning, the cold front that was bringing the severe weather to parts of the region will be off or just along the coast. Dewpoints will drop back into the 40s...sunshine will increase in all areas except CAPE COD and Vermont/NH northwards where they will still be experiencing showers and possible t storms. The rest of the region will be enjoying another pleasant day of weather.
Temperatuures will remain below normal across Northern New England with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Further south across southern new england, temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s and that will extend all the way to Southeast Pa. Further to the south (below PA/MD line) the mid to upper 80s. Interior regions of NY and PA, mid to upper 70s.

July 11th high temp @ KABE was 78

Severe Weather Verification For July 10th

2009-07-11T23:51:00.002-04:00

Severe weather is winding down across the region. There are still a few cells that have warnings attached to them. However...the hour of midnight is fast approaching and the 11th will be here.

When I first started discussing in this thread the models were originally showing the front to proceed faster then what it actually ended up. From the beginning i was quite adamant about the pattern shaping up to be consisting of a mid level ridge with warm humid air coming into the region. Temperatures hit anywhere from the mid 70s to the mid 80s depending on your location. The dewpoints rose into the mid 60s to near 70 in some locations making the air feel quite soupy in those locations. I was also adamant about explosive development occurring out ahead of the cold front as the trough dropped down into the region. The timing of the front caused me to re-evaluate things out at day 3, which at that time i created a day 3 outlook map. As the days grew closer to the actual event..i kept the day 3 outlook map as Day 2 and then finally as Day 1. Evaluation showed nothing had to be changed. Although, the original timing was off...the pattern recognition from 9-10 days out ended up being correct.
Last night there was talk about a S/W spreading overnight into parts of the region and i mentioned that it was going to have no play on the outcome today because the outcome would be clouds overnight keeping temps from dropping and then moving out to allow for sunshine to start the day. Nowcasting observations showed behind that energy was clear skies until you got closer to the cold front. This allowed daytime heating to occur..sending the temperatures and dewpoints up.
So, while the original timing was off by two days...the pattern recognition and the outcome was what was called for, anticipated and expected. Explosive development had occurred causing potentially (2) tornados. So overall, I am quite happy with the outcome, despite the original timing call.

July 11th Discussion Heat & Humidity on the rise..Are you surprised?

2009-07-11T00:09:00.000-04:00

July 11th Discussion
Heat & Humidity on the rise..Are you surprised?

Southerly flow will be over the area today ahead of an advancing cold front. Looking at the IR satellite last evening..high cirrus clouds were moving across the region..however..they looked like they were thinning out and the humidity was on the increase towards the north. Essentially what that means for today is that it will feel more soupy! Skies should begin partly cloudy across the region..however..high thin clouds will be on the approach thru out the day in advance of the cold front. This cold front is going to once again cause showers and thunderstorms to break out across the region..so keep an eye to the sky as some of them will turn severe. Best chances for severe across the western regions.
Temperatures across the area ..Mid-Upper 70s across central and northern New England into Maine...Southern New England temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Further south..across PA..east central and southeast PA into NJ temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s... western PA in the upper 70s to lower 80s (subject to change depending on warm front could be in the middle 80s) to south of PA in the mid to upper 80s to some locations near 90!
Once again because of the cool summer so far tomorrows temperatures in the 80s with higher humidity will feel warmer then it really is. Please keep water on you if you are doing anything outside.

July 10th High temperature @ KABE 80

July 11th Severe Weather Potential

2009-07-10T23:51:00.002-04:00

After viewing the latest SREF..I see no reason to change this map which was originally a day 3 outlook! Greatest potential for severe weather will be across the western part of the zone!

July 10th Weather Discussion Heat & Humidity on the Rebound

2009-07-09T20:46:00.000-04:00

July 10th Weather Discussion
Heat & Humidity on the Rebound

If you have been enjoying the weather the last few days..today will be one more day to enjoy when it comes to pleasant weather. However, some areas will start to feel an increase in air temperature as well as humidity as winds switch from the east to the south. Usually when winds switch around to the south this signifies a return to warmer weather. With warmth also comes humidity & humidity will also be on the increase.
As far as the weather is concerned, another rain free day will be on tap across the region. Partly to mostly sunny skies across the region will allow the sun to shine and daytime heating to occur.
If you live in the state of Maine you are going to think "Finally summer is here" as the temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 80s! After being in the 60s for so long, yesterday and today probably are going to feel "superwarm" compared to what you are use to this summer season. For if any area has not had a summer it is there.
Further south across southern New England and interior new england..upper 70s to lower 80s, with the exception of along the immediate coast the lower to middle 70s. Further south across PA the lower to middle 80s. South of PA will also enjoy lower to middle 80s! Today would be a good day if you like to swim to go hit the swimming pools. As always enjoy the weather!

High temperature July 9th @ KABE 78

Pattern Update

2009-07-09T20:32:00.003-04:00

Essentially a difference of opinions..ECM amplifies another trough over the Northeast and the eastern states in the 8-10 day mean. Meanwhile the GFS keeps a trough over SE canada with reaching influence into the Northeast but more or less flattens out to more of a zonal flow...The ECM at 12 Z is different from last nights 00z. 00z ECM was more progressive..it still brought a trough into the Northeast but it also was lifting it out faster. The GFS meanwhile moves the trough across the US/Canadian border and then to SE Canada and then it amplifies over the Northeast..Then this trough lingers in SE Canada keeping Northern and Central New England on the cooler side of the temperature scenario.
So with different model outlooks and interpretations..Which model to believe? Essentially the answer to that question is neither.. A blend of the two solutions would work out best when considering the teleconnections.
Looking at the NAO above. The NAO is still negative but is starting to "loosen up" and is starting to move more towards neutral and then by the end of the period actually is forecasted to go on the positive side of neutral.

Meanwhile the PNA, looking at the chart above..is neutral and expected to stay neutral throughout the nearterm and the extended.

EPO meanwhile is neutral, looking at the chart above and expected to go negative before heading back to neutral once again
So teleconnections wise would essentially point to a zonal flow across the region. Systems moving west to east and air coming off the pacific.
Temperature wise across the region...Northern New England and Central New England look to stay seasonal to below seasonable. Southern New England around seasonal. PA & Points south look to be in the range of seasonal to slightly above seasonal.

Update on Upcoming Severe Weather Potential

2009-07-09T19:40:00.002-04:00

Depending on the timing of the cold front this potential zone could shift to the east. As of right now this looks like the potential zone for the best chances of severe weather. An upper level ridge building into the area and high pressure moving off the coast late in the day on friday will cause winds to switch around to the south. This is going to allow warm air and more humid air to filter into the region courtesy of a warm front approaching from the south. Depending on how far north this warm front progresses will determine how warm the air gets.

Meanwhile a strong S/W with its attending closed low will be moving across Canada, along with an attending trough that will be digging over the midwest into the Great Lakes region. This will cause a cold front to come thru the region into the very warm & more humid air. ATM the timing appears that it will be crossing the region in the Satuday night time frame. Then this cold front should drop to the south of the area during the overnight hours into sunday. Models are hinting that there could be overnight convection as well Saturday night. The severe weather threat will then shift to the south on Sunday...

July 9th Weather Discussion Another Pleasant Day On Tap Before Heat & Humidity Strike Back!

2009-07-08T20:40:00.001-04:00

July 9th Weather Discussion

Another Pleasant Day On Tap Before Heat & Humidity Strike Back!

Another pleasant day of weather is on tap for the majority of the region. I also think that the majority of the region will be rain free. This will allow the temperatures to slightly modify across the far northern areas. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with just the slightest chance of a shower over central New England.
Temperatures in Maine look to warm into the 70s. A little further south into central New England temps will also be in the low to mid 70s. Further to the south and east into southern New England, upper 60s along the immediate coastline to mid 70s further from the coast. Interior regions look to be in the upper 70s and from SE PA into SC PA temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. To the south of the PA/ MD border low to mid 80s! Enjoy this pleasant day of weather as friday starts the return to more humid weather :)

Daytime high on July 8th was 74 unseasonably cool in KABE

July 8th Weather Discussion Pleasant Day To The South!

2009-07-08T00:02:00.001-04:00

July 8th Weather Discussion

Pleasant Day To The South!

The weather todays is going to be basically the same as it has been the past couple days. From Pa and points south..the weather will be basically pleasant. There is an outside chance of a shower/thundershower but for the most part skies will be partly sunny! From NNY into central and southern & northern new england..there is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe from an occluded front in the region.
Temperatures in Northern New York into Northern New England and Maine will be in the 60-70 range once again. To the south in southern New England mid 70's to around 80. Further south into SE PA into South Central Pa in the lower 80s. Elsewhere into the interior regions of NY and Western PA temperatures in the 70-80 range..While south of the PA/MD border temperatures will be in the 80-90 range...Enjoy the pleasant weather as the pleasant weather continues!

July 8th Severe Weather Potential

2009-07-07T22:22:00.001-04:00

As far as severe weather chances for tomorrow goes. Latest guidance from the NAM/SREF & the GFS are not all that impressive for tomorrow. NAM shows virtually no cape..SREF shows nothing as far as severe thunderstorms either. Latest GFS has a small pocket of CAPE ranging around 1000 with Lift index in the range of -2 to -4. Lapse rates are decent at 6.0-6.5 and shear is also decent on the GFS of 35-50 knots. With the cold air aloft i believe that there could be some storms capable of producing hail. I am not expecting severe weather to be as active as what tuesday was however.. Also to serve as a triggeris an occluded front in the area. So with all the above said here is the outlook for tomorrow.

July 7th Daily Weather Discussion

2009-07-06T20:37:00.000-04:00

July 7th Weather Discussion

Steady, Slipping Or Rising? Where we end up?

Depending on where you reside you may feel like when it comes to the weather and the corresponding temperatures that you are on a rollercoaster. It seems that there is a pattern that has been steady , slipping and then rising..only to repeat itself.
There will be a S/W moving thru the region during the day on tuesday. This S/W will trigger the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the NE from PA/NJ northeastward. However...majority of the day across the Northern Mid Atlantic will be rain free and partly to mostly sunny! The better chances for diurnally induced showers and thunderstorms is to the north of PA...
Temperature wise we will be looking at unseasonably cool air across Northern new england and northern NY with temperatures not getting out of the 60s and the mountains in the Northeast not getting out of the 40s. Further to the south across interior new york, temperatures should be in the 70-80 range. Across southern new england the mid to upper 70s. Further south from NYC to philadelphia and west into south central PA the low 80s. Across western PA and western NY ..upper 60s to upper 70s. Enjoy the weather as right now IMO it could not get any more pleasant then what it is. Heat & Humidity is on the horizon!
July 6th high temperature @ KABE was 81 degrees.

July 7th Severe Weather Potential

2009-07-06T14:44:00.002-04:00

Another S/W will be dropping down into NY State during wednesday! While CAPE levels are not all that impressive in the range of 500-2000 depending on where you are located..Shear will be decent across the area with 30-50 knots (again depending on location).Lapse rates are anywhere from 6.0-7.0 across the region. The region will also be in the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet rotating around the vortmax. Lift index across the area will be in the range of -2 to -4.
Although CAPE levels are not that impressive with the amount of shear in place and the cold air aloft this should be sufficient to produce severe weather in the region highlighted with hail being the primary threat. The most likely areas will be further north but have included southern regions due to the shear and being in the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet.

Severe Weather Potential July 6th 2009

2009-07-05T22:05:00.001-04:00

While parameters are not the greatest across the region highlighted, about 500-1000 and lift index is on the weak side 0 to -2...there still exists the chance for isolated severe weather. This severe weather would be much along the lines of a couple days ago. Not expecting many reports at all as the chance is rather low. If i were to put a percentage on it-I would say less then 5%. There will be a trough across the region and a cold front in the vicinity. It will be this cold front that could trigger some isolated severe weather. Any storms that would be able to fire off would mainly experience hail and perhaps some gusty winds. These storms will mainly be diurnally driven so they will die out in the early evening hours.

July 6th Weather Discussion - Another beautiful day on Tap

2009-07-05T19:43:00.001-04:00

July 6th Weather Discussion

Another beautiful day on Tap

Today once again will serve to be a pretty nice day weather wise across the region. Majority of the region will be looking at partly to mostly sunny skies. There is an outside chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms that will be diurnally driven from a low pressure system in Southeast Canada. Though there is this outside chance these should only be of the very scattered type and this would be from NE PA into the Northeast that has the best chance. Otherwise sunny skies will be the main show!
Temperatures look to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the state of Maine. Further south from Southern New england into SE PA..the upper 70s to mid 80s. South of the PA border temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Interior regions of NY and northern new england the mid to upper 70s. Across western Pa upper 70s to lower 80s. Two beautiful days of weather in a row..Lets see if we can serve up yet another for the day on tuesday! Until then! :)

The high at KABE for July 5th was 77 degrees!

Severe Potential July 9th-11th Update

2009-07-05T12:55:00.002-04:00

The heat ridge looks to build into the area on wednesday of this week. Latest guidance seems to be suggesting that this heat ridge could potentially be strong enough across the region to cause any S/Ws that try and come thru the region to be either insignifant or have very little effect on the area until the weekend.

When first issuing the potential severe weather regional zones these were based on a strong cold front approaching the region with its associated trough of low pressure and with the warm air mass out in front and the air mass behind this cold front would have sparked off severe weather.The models were in agreement that this trough would then amplify.. That being the case the severe maps were issued as a potential scenario. The maps issued were never based off of severe weather parameters but rather the general pattern and the basis of a cold front and associated trough dropping down into that warm air mass in place. That idea and theory seem to be on track with the general pattern agreement. However, what ATM appears to be off is the timing of the cold front. This can happen when forecasting in the medium range which is the range we are still in..however..the theory that this was built on and around is very much still intact and on schedule. However the timing of the cold front has been delayed.

July 5th Weather Discussion Pleasant Weather on Tap For the Holiday For Most Areas!

2009-07-05T00:27:00.000-04:00

July 5th Weather Discussion

Pleasant Weather on Tap For the Holiday For Most Areas!

Pleasant weather is in store for majority of the region on this holiday weekend. Today appears that majority of the region will be under partly to mostly sunny skies. There are a few exceptions to this..along the southern tier of PA & south of there..more in the way of clouds could be an issue with a S/W moving across the southern Mid Atlantic which could bring an outside chance of a shower into southern PA and more steady showers further to the south over the southern Mid Atlantic. There will be shower activity over the state of Maine as an are of low pressure is spinning just across the Maine border.
Temperatures look to be 60-70 across the western part of Maine to the mid to upper 70s across the eastern side. Once again from Southern NH into Se PA , NYC and points south and east looks to be pleasant with high temps in the lower 80s. Interior regions look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Across western Pa and the southern Mid Atlantic 70-80 degrees looks to be the range. All and all a pretty pleasant day on tap across the majority of the region.
High temperature for July 4th was 78 degrees @ KABE

Update on Potential Severe Weather July 9th and 10th

2009-07-05T00:08:00.003-04:00

An update on this scenario. The 12 Z ECM starts to build the ridge into the area on thursday and has it in pretty much full effect on friday in all areas except extreme northern New England...around the state of Maine..

So the GFS on its 18 Z run actually builds this ridge in faster then the 12 Z ECM.. The 18 Z GFS is in harmony with its ensemble mean on the over all synoptics and timing of the ridge.

As of today, the models slow down the timing of the cold front by a day..(a condition which i highlighted could become an issue...) and this might cause the severe potential zone to shift some. However, being that there is not run to run consistency with the timing of this frontal passage will choose to keep the maps as they are for now..
Essentially the only difference at this point and time is a timing issue and not a matter of the general pattern. Major models from the GFS to the ECM to the GGEM all agree on the general pattern of a ridge building into the region. GFS is one day faster then the GGEM and ECM
The issue of timing relates to the cold front as well. If the cold front starts to approach the region on thursday..then the severe potential zone would be IMO as highlighted. If it is slowed down by a day then that zone would get pushed west some and friday would be the day for severe weather. With the models not having run to run consistency there is no point in making any change to the maps ATM because the timing could change back to a day faster..then the change would have been futile.

Severe Potential July 9th &10th..Subject to Change

2009-07-03T22:03:00.001-04:00

The ECM and GFS are in pretty strong agreement that a heat ridge is going to build into the region..This ridge looks to start building in to the region in the wednesday to thursday time frame...

This ridge building into the region is going to cause some very warm temps to occur across the region. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s..perhaps lower 90s across some spots.
Meanwhile both models are also in agreement on dropping a pretty strong upper level low from Central Canada into Southeast Canada and then the ECM amplifies this trough, along with the GFS.. This trough dropping into the very warm air mass in place will more then likely be the breeding ground for the next severe weather outbreak.
Of course, Parameters between now and then will change and this might have to be fine tuned but confidence level with both models in agreement on major synoptics, is fairly high. High enough to issue Preliminary maps that could very well end up being the only maps...

July 3rd Verification

2009-07-03T21:05:00.003-04:00

It appears as though the severe threat has winded down..So far there have been a total of 6 reports..

1. 1910 75 WARWICK KENT RI 4170 7142 PENNY SIZE HAIL (BOX)
2. 2036 75 2 W DURHAM MIDDLESEX CT 4147 7272 PENNY SIZE HAIL TAKING LEAVES OFF OF TREES (OKX)
3.2211 150 SPRINGFIELD HAMPDEN MA 4212 7254 ONE STONE THIS SIZE..MOSTLY 3/8 INCH. WEDGEWOOD RD. SPRINGFIELD-EAST LONGMEADOW LINE. (BOX)
4.2040 UNK 2 W DURHAM MIDDLESEX CT 4147 7272 TREE FELL DOWN, ALSO TAKING DOWN WIRES AT INTERSECTION OF RT. 157 AND RT. 8 (OKX)
5.2212 UNK LUDLOW HAMPDEN MA 4217 7248 LARGE BRANCHES WITH WIRES DOWN ON LUDLOW CHICOPEE LINE. (BOX)
6.2042 75 1 SE LIMINGTON YORK ME 4372 7070 PUBLIC REPORTS PENNY SIZE HAIL IN LIMINGTON. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (GYX)
Original Discussion

Taking a look at the 18 Z GFS and the 18 Z NAM along with the 15 Z SREF....

Once again parameters that are in place are just not all that much. In fact, they are very minimal. With 500-1500 across a small area in southern new england..and on the GFS, basically the same area in the range of 1000-2000. Lift index of -2 to -4. Weak shear in place.
With the above parameters in place..there could be a few isolated storms that go severe..However, once again, the risk of severe weather is very low. The ULL that has been responsible for the showers and thunderstorms is weakening and starting to move off to the east.
Primary threat once again with any cells will be heavy rains. Areas in the northeast have been on the receiving end of alot of rain during the month of June and the soil is very saturated. So it will not take much rain to cause flooding problems once again.

So with the above out of the way ..the map below highlights the area where isolated severe weather is possible.

Post Mortem...

As it appears that the severe weather is winding down. Once again, with flash flood warnings in Maine..the potential was there for heavy rain as the primary threat. If any of the cells in Maine happen to turn in a severe weather report I will edit this post and edit the map. The severe weather that did take place was in the severe weather zone that was highlighted and the outcome was pretty much as expected with the parameters very minimal!

July 4th Weather Discussion Happy 4th of July- A Good Reason to Keep An Eye to the Sky!

2009-07-03T20:26:00.001-04:00

July 4th Weather Discussion

Happy 4th of July- A Good Reason to Keep An Eye to the Sky!

First off let me start this off by saying Happy 4th of July to everyone! :) Enjoy the fireworks and picnic food! :) Now on to the weather. Unfortunately, if you are in Northern New England, particulary Maine..those fireworks might be on a rain delay. Showers and thunderstorms might rain on the parade as the ULL low although weakening and pulling away is closer to your neighborhood. Further to the south, across the rest of the northeast and the mid atlantic...skies look to be partly sunny to mostly sunny. Not that the sun has not been shining around this area..however..it will be pretty good to see that sunshine without really having to worry about the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures from Boston to Philadelphia and points south and east look to be in the lower 80s. Across NNY, and Northern New England into Maine temperatures will be held down into the 60s to lower 70s. Across the rest of the region temperatures will be in the 70-80 degree range. All and all, unless you are far north...the weather should be pretty cooperative for July 4th Spectaculars!

Midday thoughts on Severe Potential Zone

2009-07-03T11:57:00.002-04:00

First off the satellite...Majority of the area is under cloud cover this morning. Though there are breaks in the cloud cover and should continue to be breaks as most areas should become partly sunny.
Next the surface map
When looking at the surface map, the first thing one notices is that the ULL that has been responsible for the showers and thunderstorms has now lifted into SE CANADA and should continue to spin and rotate out of the picture. The other thing that one notices is that there is another S/W attached to the warm front over southern Maine. This is the S/W that brought the heavy rains to the state of Maine last night. The third thing one notices is a low pressure area in Canada with a cold front approaching western Pa.

Now taking a look at the most latest guidance. The 12 Z NAM has southern and central New England with CAPE VALUES of 500-1500 range. The 12 Z GFS has CAPE VALUES of 1000-2000 in the same general vicinity but also includes Eastern Pa in as well. Lift index in this same area is -2 to -4. Shear is also very minimal. So with all the above on the table my thoughts have not changed from last night. We are really lacking a trigger to cause any severe weather. Yes we do have a upper level shortwave over Central PA that is touching off some spotty isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as it rotates thru the region over the next couple hours. Being that the parameters are quite low, cloud cover is in place, severe weather should be very limited and sporadic. It would not surprise me if there were no reports of severe weather over the northeast today...However...lately the atmosphere has liked to destabalize just enough for storms to cause hail and or gusty winds...
With all that said the best areas IMO for severe weather IF it were to occur I have highlighted on my map below which was created last night. In case it was missed..

July 2nd Verification of Severe Potential

2009-07-03T00:13:00.004-04:00

Original Discussion

Now looking at tomorrow..I am not at all impressed with the Severe Parameters..CAPE VALUES are minimal on the GFS and they are minimal on the NAM as well..Topping out at about 1500. As of now the SREF is not all that impressed with the potential.
However, with the ULL still sitting and spinning over the Great Lakes..I am going to highlight a zone that has potential to see severe weather. I do not think that there will be widespread severe weather and I think the main threat will be hail if it does actually occur.
Alot of whether or not severe weather occurs will depend on how much cloud debris and how much daytime heating can occur. I think that the area is going to be pretty much in cloud cover and the temperatures are also going to reflect this as well...
Also the S/W that was suppose to be the trigger for 7/1 is just moving thru the area today and that should develop a low pressure that moves thru and off the NJ coastline. So this should pretty much nullify the severe potential for the most part.
However...convection is still occuring at the moment and probably will continue thru the night. Not all areas will see this convection.
I think the main threat will continue to be the potential for heavy rains.

Post Mortem

The severe weather that occurred today, which was limited to 7 reports, primarily occurred this morning in association with the S/W that moved thru PA last night! All the severe weather reports occurred within the zone that was highlighted. As was assessed the chances of severe weather were quite low, and the outcome was the assessment.

July 3rd Weather Discussion - A Break In The Midst of What Has been!

2009-07-02T23:13:00.001-04:00

July 3rd Weather Discussion

A Break In The Midst of What Has been!

The upper level low that has been plaguing the mid atlantic and northeast has finally begun to weaken and move off to the east. One more day of being under the influence of this upper level low and it should lose its influence on our weather. This ULL will then be replaced by a ridge that will build in just in time for the holiday weekend.
Weather wise across the region across the mid atlantic, it should be a nicer day weather wise. There will still be an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms..a few across the NE could reach severe limits but they should be quite isolated. The northeast actually has a better chance for showers and thunderstorms then the mid atlantic thanks to the ULL moving across the Northeast. So keep an umbrella handy for one more day.
Temperature wise upper 60s to low 70s across maine which is unseasonably cool.Once again from Hartford Ct, to NYC and South and east temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Interior regions of the northeast that have not already been mentioned and the upper mid atlantic mid to upper 70s and further west across western NY and western PA...low to mid 70s.

July 2nd high temperature @ KABE 79

July 3rd Severe Potential Zone

2009-07-02T22:13:00.001-04:00

More Photos From Partner Kevin

2009-07-02T19:47:00.001-04:00

Thanks again for permission of use of these photos..

Pattern Update For Week of July 5th & Onward

2009-07-02T15:56:00.001-04:00

It appears that Sunday July 5th does look to start the transition pattern into a warmer regime. Once this upper level low weakens and moves out and lifts into Canada...a ridge will build in for the weekend with temperatures in the 80s. After this it looks like there is one more upper level low that will move over the Northeast territory..This should be in the mon-wed time frame. After this high pressure and another ridge should build into the region. Both the ECM and GFS are in agreement on this happening..

It is once this ridge presses into the region that the heat will also press into the region and we could experience our first bonafide heat wave of the summer season. Temperatures in the monday to wednesday time frame should be seasonal for most of the region except over the northeast where they have been struggling will more then likely be slightly below seasonal.

Storm Photos From Partner Kevin!

2009-07-02T00:51:00.003-04:00

Thank you for the permission to use these photos here on the blog!

July 2nd Daily Discussion

2009-07-02T00:33:00.000-04:00

July 2nd Weather Discussion

The end in sight-Not quite!

Second day into the month of July and it appears as June is lingering into this month. An ULL (upper level low) continues to sit and spin over the Northeast and is slowly starting to move off to the East or East South East. As has been the case over the past several days...showers and thunderstorms have been part of our every day weather. Not neccessarily all areas receive them, however..parts of the region have. Parts of southern New England have recieved a heavy amount of rainfall as well. So FLASH FLOODING will be an issue.
There may be times of sunshine from time to time but the majority of the day is going to end up cloudy and potentially wet and possibly some rumbles in the air.
Temperatures look to remain quite cool and below normal across the state of Maine and the mountains of the Northeast in NH, where those mountains might not make it past 50! The rest of the area , northern Maine in the lower 70s and the southern half looks to be in the 60s.
Further to the south..a cooler day overall from NYC points south and east with the temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Central Pa and interior regions look to be in the 75-80 range..while western PA..looks to be in the 65-70 range... Temperatures to the south of the PA/MD border in the 80s..
I wish I had better news to deliver this morning..but unfortunately I do not!

July 1st High Temp @ KABE was 82 degrees ...

July 2nd Potential? Late Night thoughts

2009-07-02T00:19:00.001-04:00

I am incorporating a new method of putting maps across because I find at times I debate whether its neccessary to even differentiate between a low risk (5%) to a slight risk (15%) because technically either 5% or 15% is still a low risk leaving a 85%-95% chance of that severe weather not actually occurring. So I haved discussed this with my partner, and talked to a few other individuals and ..R.W.S have decided when issuing a map will just highlight the regions that should potentially expect to be impacted by severe weather instead of using the risk percentages....

Whenever a map is required to be issued for a 1 day event..it is an R.W.S policy that the map be issued 24 hours or less before the event and before SPC issues there 1 day event map (during the summer)

Now looking at tomorrow..I am not at all impressed with the Severe Parameters..CAPE VALUES are minimal on the GFS and they are minimal on the NAM as well..Topping out at about 1500. As of now the SREF is not all that impressed with the potential.
However, with the ULL still sitting and spinning over the Great Lakes..I am going to highlight a zone that has potential to see severe weather. I do not think that there will be widespread severe weather and I think the main threat will be hail if it does actually occur.
Alot of whether or not severe weather occurs will depend on how much cloud debris and how much daytime heating can occur. I think that the area is going to be pretty much in cloud cover and the temperatures are also going to reflect this as well...
Also the S/W that was suppose to be the trigger for 7/1 is just moving thru the area today and that should develop a low pressure that moves thru and off the NJ coastline. So this should pretty much nullify the severe potential for the most part.
However...convection is still occuring at the moment and probably will continue thru the night. Not all areas will see this convection.
I think the main threat will continue to be the potential for heavy rains.

A Blown Forecast or Delayed? Evening Thoughts!

2009-07-01T18:43:00.003-04:00

If one were to animate this radar one would see that storms are starting to fire up across central PA and SW PA. As stated earlier, we have been waiting upon the trigger, which was a S/W back over West Virgina. Over the past couple hours, this S/W has finally started to move off to the east northeast. While we are losing the daytime heating ..the CAPE VALUES are expected to maintain around 1000+ in the overnight hours.

Being that this S/W has meandered longer over the West VA area, the forcing from this S/W did not make it into the aformentioned area while daytime heating was occurring so there has been a delay in the thunderstorms.

However..as that S/W progresses to the east northeast , the long awaited showers and thunderstorms will also progress from the south to the Northeast.

Potentially what we will be looking at is thunderstorms that may obtain strong to isolated severe weather , but, the more "real" threat will be if and when the storms progress to your area , the potential for these storms to "train" across the area and in that process produce copius amounts of rain over a particular area. So flash flooding will become a concern anywhere from SE PA into NYC

Current Thoughts on Severe Weather

2009-07-01T14:37:00.001-04:00

Current thoughts...
Theres a S/W over western VA...this S/W following the flow around the ULL over the great lakes should move towards SE PA. Its as this shortwave approaches the area that will act as the trigger and storms should start to develop across South central into SE PA and then move Northeastwards...Possible time frame for storms would be after 4 PM ...

Forecasting Methods-The Difference & Why!

2009-06-30T23:13:00.002-04:00

You might have noticed that as the lead forecaster for R.W.S and the creator of the maps that are made for specific individual events...that majority of the time only one map is made. While many of your forecasters will issue maps several times as updates for events...I choose to issue majority of times one single map. That map is usually issued within 24 hours of an event. You may ask yourself why I choose to do forecasting this way.

Well, to answer that, when a map is issued within 24 hours of the event..based on the models and ensembles (whether they be GFS, NAM, ECM, SREF, or a combination) the forecasters skills should be able to anticipate slight changes and incorporate them into that original map. There are some exceptions to this forecasting method that would require another maps issuance.

For example: In Winter

24 hours or less before an event a map is issued an ensembles and models are showing the heaviest snow zone over the I-95 corridor. Then within 12 hours of the event the models and ensembles now move that heaviest zone west by 100 miles. Then this would require the issuance of another map

In Summer

24 hours or less before an event a map is issued based on the models and ensembles showing the best Parameters over the I 95 corridor...but as time draws nearer the models and ensembles now show a shift to the north of 200 miles. Then another map would be issued..Also in summer time if when the map is issued for severe weather and parameters do not really meet a slight risk and a low risk is issued instead, the territory that is highlighted as low risk should be the only area that receives severe weather. In other words, even though a low risk is issued, instead of slight, severe storms are anticipated and expected to not occur outside that area.

At times I debate whether its neccessary to even differentiate between a low risk (5%) to a slight risk (15%) because technically either 5% or 15% is still a low risk leaving a 85%-95% chance of that severe weather not actually occurring. So after I discuss this with my partner..R.W.S when issuing a map just might highlight the regions that should expect severe weather instead of the risk percents.

These examples do happen and occur...so from time to time you might see an updated map issued.

Whenever a map is required to be issued for a 1 day event..it is an R.W.S policy that the map be issued 24 hours or less before the event and before SPC issues there 1 day event map (during the summer)

So I hope that explains the reason that only one map is issued per event! Thank you for reading and if you like, please let me a comment to let me know what you think!

June Verification

2009-06-30T21:00:00.001-04:00

Here at R.W.S. I like to verify the good and the bad. The past two months (april and may) verified pretty accurately and I was hoping to keep on that hot streak. However...June was not to be overcome and the only area that verified accurately was in the south....So for this month I have to grade myself a D...again though this too was made about 90 days in advance...Hopefully July can pick up the slack of June...

July 1st Weather Discussion

2009-06-30T19:55:00.001-04:00

July 1st Weather Discussion
Wish you could say-Rain go away?

As seems to be the theme of the month of June...July looks like its going to get off to the same type of start as we been experiencing during June. The upper level low will finally begin to fill and weaken and start to move slowly off to the east. As it does this though..once again it will send S/Ws thru the area and with daytime heating...if you said showers and thunderstorms, you would be correct. Once again these should primarily be during the afternoon into the evening and as the daytime heat wears off the storms and moisture will wind down. Why? Because these are driven more or less by the sunshine heating the atmosphere up. Take away the sunshine and you take away the juice that makes them form-so they start to weaken and then dissipate.

Temperatures once again from NYC points south and East into SE PA and east of there look to be in the 80 to 85 range. Further south and east of there you are talking about HOT temps in the lower and middle 90s. Interior regions going west into Central Pa and NY temperatures will be in the 70s. Further to the west in western NY and western PA..say it ain't so, but looks like the highest you may peak is 70 with temperatures primarily in the 60s. Into the state of Maine mid 60s in the southern half to the lower 70s in the northern half!

High temp @ KABE was 83 on June 30th

July 1st Severe Weather

2009-06-30T19:18:00.002-04:00

With today's action winding down..Time to move on to tomorrow.

The ULL will continue to sit and spin over the Great Lakes (Lake Huron) but will start to fill and weaken and slowly drift off to the east. Never the less..it will be responsible for continuing to send S/Ws thru the region which will once again set off showers and thunderstorms across the region.
CAPE values once again look to be between 1000-2000 and LI looks to be mainly in the -2 to -4 range. Basing the forecast off of a combination of the GFS and the SREF. Bulk shear looks to be around 30 Knots. Lapse rates between 5.5 and 6.0.. With the colder air aloft..once again the main threat appears to be hail and of course heavy rain with any storms that should approach the area.

June 30th Daily Weather Discussion

2009-06-29T19:19:00.000-04:00

June 30th Weather Discussion

Rumbles in the air=Nothing to Fear!

Yes its true..today will be a day where there could be rumbles in the air..Rumbles of thunder, flashes of lightning...perhaps some small hail...However...as has been the case the past 2-3 days..The weather is going to remain status quo. That is status quo for being under the influence of a trough created by an ULL over the Great Lakes. This ULL is being responsible from time to time of sending S/Ws thru the area which keep a chance of showers and or thunderstorms in the forecast. Mainly these are due to the daytime heating. This ULL is once again going to send a cold front thru the forecast area in the overnight period of the 29th and it will setup shop just to the south of the region over the Delmarva.This will allow little vorticities or waves of low pressure to move along this front..Keeping that chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
So the breakdown is as follows. Most areas once again should wake up to Party Cloudy skies with sunshine from time to time. The day time heating ..temperatures once again from NYC points south and East into SE PA and south and east of there in the 80-85 range. Over the interior regions temperatures will be in the 70-80 range...However..when you get into Maine (seems to be the coldest spot of June) temperatures will only be in the 60s again. I do not think that the parameters for severe weather are enough to disrupt the day or enough to cause warrant to really keep an eye to the sky
June 29th Daytime High Temp at KABE was 81 degrees..

June 30th Severe or No Severe?

2009-06-29T13:17:00.002-04:00

I am still not too impressed with the set up for tomorrow. PARAMETERS are very minimal with CAPE VALUES on both the NAM & GFS in the range of 1000-2000. Lift Index is modest at -2 to -4 across the region. Lapse rates of 6-6.5...

Basically what you have is a upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes which is going to be sending S/Ws from time to time across the region which will give the region a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Due to the cold pool of air aloft at the 500MB level..Any storms that form have the potential to create Hail. At this point and time I do not think there will be widespread severe but rather isolated in nature and more sporadic...So, due to the above I have only placed the region with the best Parameters in place in a low 5% low risk of severe weather...

July Monthly Outlook

2009-06-28T23:27:00.002-04:00

This was created back in March of 2008! Whether or not it verifies time will tell the story! With the heat ridge building in the second week of July..It might not happen as portrayed..

I changed the map background but the departures remain the same as what was posted on this blog back when the summer outlook was created...

June 29th Daily Discussion-The Past Is Here-What draws near?

2009-06-28T19:46:00.000-04:00

June 29th Daily Discussion

The Past Is Here-What draws near?

A warm front that is approaching the area the evening of June 28th is causing some regions to experience showers and thunderstorms. Once this warm front goes thru..a cold front is going to cross the region and this cold front will also produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. This cold front is attached to an area of low pressure that is currently west of the Great Lakes and will take residence over the Great lakes thru the majority of this week. So the forecast for Monday the 29th is pretty similar to the forecast for the 28th. Most areas should experience partly cloudy skies with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better chance of this would be areas further to the north in Northern NH and Maine. However...any area at any given time (mainly afternoon) due to day time heating can experience a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures across the region look to be in the 80s from NYC and points south and east..until you get pretty far south where the low 90s will be known. Interior regions upper 70s will be on order until you get to New Hampshire and Maine where temperatures will be kept confined to the 60s.
June 28th High Temperature @ KABE was 85

Warmer Weather On The Way-Pattern Update

2009-06-28T15:14:00.003-04:00

Once a week, each week, I am going to try and focus on the pattern that we are in and the pattern that we are headed into. To do this I will be using the teleconnections and also the models and the ensembles as well.

We currently just went thru a pattern where we had a cut off low that situated a trough over the NE as the cut off low stalled for days just south of Cape Cod which kept the area on the cool side and the wet side.

That was followed by a ridge of high pressure that built in from the Southwest into the Northeast and brought summery conditions to the mid atlantic and the northeast with temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

For the majority of this week we will be looking at another upper level low. Same old wash, rinse and repeat you might ask? Not exactly. This time the upper level low looks to take up residence over the Great Lakes area. This upper level low will then be responsible for sending S/Ws thru the region and what will appear to be front after front. Its when these S/Ws and fronts approach the area that afternoon showers and thunderstorms will break out across the region. However..with the upper level low over the Great Lakes region this will also allow this area to stay on the right hand side of that ULL which will keep us in a more seasonable air mass instead of below normal. Eventually..by about thursday of this week that ULL will move to the east and then to the northeast as it lifts up and out of this area. Probably producing more showers and thunderstorms that will be diurnally driven for the day on thursday. This is where we have been and where we are at now. So where are we going to next?

Looking at the teleconnections..the NAO which is negative now is expected to go to neutral. The PNA, which in the summer, is a weaker signal is around neutral and expected to stay neutral. The EPO is positive now but trending towards neutral but expected to trend back towards positive at the end of the period. All this essentially should spell out a zonal flow from west to east and since the PNA is not positive but neutral..Troughs should set up residence off to the north such as over the great lakes or southern Canada.

Starting around Sunday of next week..July 2nd.. with the EPO going positive, once again expect a ridge to build into the central part of the USA and start to nose its way to the north and to the east and high pressure to generally take control of our weather. Temperatures will once again get into the 80s and some locations, perhaps by midweek into the 90s (mid)? We could be looking at the possibility of our first wide spread heatwave...

The GFS and its ensembles agree with the ridge moving in starting around next sunday! The operational GFS is a little more slower on the trough moving out then the ensembles. See the images above.

So, to illustrate what should be on the horizon I have put together a map which is also above! Stay tuned to find out if we could be heading towards our first heat wave of the summer season!

Early afternoon thoughts on Invest 93

2009-06-28T12:25:00.001-04:00

First image is the satellite and INVEST 93 appears as though it is barely hanging on to any survival hopes. Second image is an image i drew up to illustrate where invest 93 is according to NHC coordinates of 20.7 and 88.0.
At the moment INVEST 93 is having land interaction.

Whether or not INVEST 93 can reintensify and get its act together remains to be seen once it gets back over open waters. Something to keep an eye on but I think invest 93 is pretty close to being called done and a TEST RUN for any systems in the future..

Evening Update Thoughts On Invest 93

2009-06-27T21:56:00.001-04:00

Latest satellite above shows invest 93 not looking too healthy tonight. This was to be expected as the invest approaches and lingers across the YUCATAN. Do to this the NHC has dropped the chances of this developing further to less then 30 %..However..once it emerges over the waters again there is a possibility that it could develop or intensify again.

Meanwhile models at early 00z guidance both statistical and dynamical have not changed there positions from the 18 Z runs. So at this point the western track looks more likely but the question to be answered is can we get development? The most we can do is monitor the situation over the next few days

In case anyone was wondering the interaction with the land will not be as bad on invest 93 being that it did not have a well defined center. So you can not really tear apart what was not there to begin with. At this point it is more of a vigourous open wave and once it goes across the YUCATAN it does have more favorable conditions for possible development.

Daily Discussion For June 28th 2009

2009-06-27T21:38:00.000-04:00

June 28th Daily Discussion

Blast from the Past?

Seems like we were just in this scenario a little while ago. Mother Nature seems to be serving up a blast from the past! However..is this going to be the same outcome as mother natures last surprise with the cut off low? While things will be similar in the sense of we will have chances of showers and thunderstorms..I do not think temperatures will be the same as the prior scenario.. So with that little snippet lets get down to it...

Majority of the region, outside of Northern New England should wake up to at least partly cloudy skies. These partly cloudy skies will tend to drift to mostly cloudy skies but there will be times where the sun breaks thru as well. With the daytime heating and a warm front approaching from the west...and an upper level low that will be taking residence over the Great Lakes..we will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will be mainly diurnally driven.
Now across Northern New England ..the chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain greater and probably be the region that would be considered more of a "washout"due to low pressure SE of CAPE Cod that will be taking its time to move away from the area.

Temperature wise once again across the region look to be in the 75-85 range depending on your location. Those temperatures will also apply to the south of the PA/MD border with some upper 80s as well.

KABE High temperature was 79 on June 27th

Pattern Update Thoughts On June 27th 2009

2009-06-27T16:47:00.001-04:00

Pattern Update...

Thoughts have not really changed much on the pattern that we are now in and going to be in for the forseeable future...

An upper level low will be over the Great Lakes region..This is going to keep the area under seasonable weather conditions for the most part..however..its also going to be responsible so sending S/Ws thru the region that will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The good news is that these showers/and or thunderstorms are going to be more diurnally driven. Temperatures thru the period look to be in the 70s to 80s.
The NAO which is quite negative now looks to rise to neutral by the end of the period. Meanwhile the PNA is neutral and looks to remain neutral pretty much while the EPO is positive and looks to fluctuate between neutral and positive thru the period. This should result pretty much in a zonal flow from west to east. With the upper level low over the Great Lakes region and high pressure pretty much in control over the SW and the South central part of the states..With the NAO going back towards neutral by the end of the period there is a high likely hood of heat returning with a ridge pushing in from the Central US again towards the Northeast....

Invest 93 Midday Thoughts

2009-06-27T15:29:00.003-04:00

My latest thoughts have not changed with invest 93.Based on the latest coordinates and movement...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
21N86W TO 5N88W MOVG W 10-15 KT
Based on past behaviour of tropical systems since 1963 see this link...

Past History <---Click here

Only 1 out of 4 systems within the same vicinity of INVEST 93 have taken a track towards FL. This information courtesy of "thegreatdr" from HPC

See his thoughts here <-- click here

AS you can see the 06 Z Dynamical models are also starting to pick up on a more westward track towards TX keeping FL more in the way out of being the target for its destination.

GFS ensemble members also have a more westerly track..06 Z

18 Z Early Statitistical models only show one track towards florida

And 18 Z early Dynamical models are quite similar..

See images above!

With a more Westward track happening this should take this invest over the YUCATAN area and between now and that time it will not have the best chance to develop into anything more. Once INVEST 93 re emerges off the YUCATAN into the Southern Gulf of Mexico..conditions will be more favorable for development. So, if it does not make depression mode before the YUCATAN..it should become a tropical depression once it is back over the open waters.

Thoughts on Invest 93

2009-06-26T22:01:00.002-04:00

Depending on where the exact center is located..this could really go either NW and continue to head across the Yucatan and into the southern GOM as NHC is thinking..or again depending on exactly where that center is located it could head like the HWRF and GDFL show...
If i am envisioning this correctly on where it is located...
At the present time, if I am correct in where it is located ..with the steering currents the way they are it should take a track across the Yucatan , and not so much towards Florida but towards Tx...
As far as intensification TCHP is favorable for development in the location where it is currently moving towards. As it passes over the Yucatan it obviously would lose intensification but TCHP is once again more favorable for development once it re emerges if it were to continue to head NW from the reemergence off the Yucatan.

Daily Discussion For June 27th

2009-06-26T21:41:00.000-04:00

Daily Discussion For June 27th
The Slippery Slope Down The Thermometer

With the cold front sliding thru the area during the afternoon of the 26th..This cold front will continue to slide a little further to the south. Storms on the 26th created some havoc from MD to Maine. The good news is that the passage of this cold front is going to break the heat that has been building and bring us back to more seasonal levels starting today.
Skies should be partly cloudy across the region. However, we will keep the chance of showers over the eastern Parts of Pennsylvania with also the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to the upper level low moving thru the region. From Eastern Pa into Southern New England and Northern New England (especially) there will be that chance of showers and thunderstorms. To the west in PA ..partly sunny skies should be the rule.
Temperatures are taking that slide back down to seasonal levels with high temperatures across the region from PA North in the upper 70s to mid 80s. To the south of PA..the heat will continue with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

June 26th High temperature at KABE was @85 degrees. Positive departure on the day of +5

Updated Thoughts For Severe Weather June 26th

2009-06-25T23:59:00.001-04:00

Daily Discussion For June 26th 2009

2009-06-25T21:13:00.002-04:00

Heat & Humidity In High Gear -Mother Natures Fireworks Will be Here!

If you thought today was hot, depending on where you reside, tomorrow June 26th, will be even more oppressive depending on where you live.
Covering first the state of PA..It will be like a state divided in half...
On the western side of the state should be waking up to cloudy skies and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms courtesy of a cold front that started approaching the area on the afternoon of the 25th. I do not think it will be a washout but rather an area of convection moving thru the region. Temperatures will be on the cooler side then they were today with highs in the lower to middle 80s. There will also be times of sunshine as well
On the eastern side of the state of PA into NJ and southern New England. Depending on the cloud debris left over from June 25ths convection activity and the speed in which that arrives...the area should wake up to Partly Sunny skies. However..as the cold front advances towards the area-clouds will spread into the area. With these clouds will come showers and thunderstorms of which some will become severe. Please see the thread on severe weather that covered June 25th and 26th for specific details. However..before these storms come into the region...Hot & Humid conditions will exist! Overnight lows on the 25th will not get out of the 60s...so it will not take much to warm up the atmosphere. Look for highs from East Central PA into Southern New England to range from 85 to 95.
Across Northern & Central New England, showers and thunderstorms will be in your forecast as well with temperatures generally in the lower to middle 80s.

If you are outside tomorrow and in the areas where the heat & humidity is going to be in high gear..Again make sure to have that bottle of water on you! Heat stroke is real & something you want to avoid! Remember as well that any storms that you may experience can be dangerous and to seek shelter when neccessary! Otherwise enjoy the warm weather & Mother Natures Fireworks Display!

KABE high temperature June 25th was 87 degrees!

Heat & Humidity & Loud Bangs In the Air?

2009-06-24T19:00:00.002-04:00

Heat & Humidity & Loud Bangs in the Air?

Daily Discussion for June 25th

I like to keep these discussions pretty much on the simple side and to find out any updated thoughts on tomorrows weather please see the thread for severe weather on June 25th to find out whether you have to keep an eye to the sky! On tap for tomorrow ..is generally three words. First is heat! If it has not felt like summer the past two days (even in the areas where 80s were obtained), tomorrow will feel like summer and may even feel oppressive when you are outside. Mostly sunny skies majority of regions should start off with. However, as a cold front approaches from the NW..this is going to cause showers and thunderstorms to break out along the advancing cold front. See the june 25th Northeast/Mid Atlantic thread to see if you are in any severe risk areas.
Daytime high temperatures across the region will be in the low to mid 90s south of the PA/MD border...to the mid 80s- to near 90 degrees across the rest of the region with the exception of the central new england and northern new england coastline where temperatures will range in the upper 70s. So be prepared for heat, humidity and the potential for severe weather! If you are outside and live in areas where its going to approach 90 degrees ....Please make sure you have a bottle of water on you because after the cool, damp weather that most have been experiencing this will make 85-90 feel even hotter then the reality of it is! Be careful and enjoy the weather!

High temperature @ KABE June 24th 82

Severe Weather Probabilities June 26th

2009-06-24T18:30:00.002-04:00

An upper level ridge is pushing into the region overnight tonight and during the day on thursday. This will be responsible for sending temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 in some locations. Humidity will also be a factor. Meanwhile while this is occurring a S/W and its associated trough will be moving in from the NW, heading to the SE.. The advancing cold front will cross the area during the day on friday! With a warm, humid air mass in place and CAPE levels marginally decent at 1500-2500 and Lift index between -4 to -6..this should be sufficient trigger to set off a line of thunderstorms out in advance of this cold front. Main threat from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and hail.

Severe Weather Probabilities June 25th

2009-06-24T00:41:00.002-04:00

An advancing cold front will be crossing the area late in the day into thursday night! This cold front will be advancing into a very warm airmass thanks to a midlevel ridge that will be pushing in from the southwest wednesday and thursday. This cold front pushing into very warm, humid air will cause thunderstorms to break out in advance of the front. The great CAPE and LI levels will be over NE PA into Western NY and Central New England where the cape levels will be as high as 2500. Elsewhere the CAPE levels are between 500-1500..So i have included those areas in a low risk (5%) . LI (Lift Index) looks to be in the -4 to -6 range.
The only thing not working in the favor of severe weather is the bulk shear which is isolated in spots of 25-30 knots. However, with temperatures in the high 80s and perhaps low 90s and an advancing cold front..with marginal cape levels I believe conditions should be favorable enough to kick off severe storms.

The Return of Summer

2009-06-23T21:39:00.001-04:00

Wednesday June 24th Weather Discussion..
The Return of Summer

Well at least its going to feel that way across majority of the region. Majority of the region will have Partly Cloudy to Partly Sunny skies with warm air infilitrating into a large part of the region. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across PA, NJ and points south.
The exception to this rule will be southern New England into Maine, closer to the coast where once again showers will be in the air and clouds will be the rule rather then the sun. This in thanks to the upper level low retrograding as it weakens and finally starts to dissipate later tonight into thursday. Daytime high temperatures in these areas will be in the upper 60s along the coast to the upper 70s more inland. If the areas along the coast can manage to get into the clearing skies earlier then I would not be surprised to see temperatures there as well into the mid to upper 70s.

High temperature for June 23rd KABE 81 degrees

The Return of Daily Weather Discussion

2009-06-22T19:29:00.000-04:00

A warmer & Quieter Weather Pattern In Store For Much of the Region

Discussion for June 23rd, 2009

Low pressure will continue to meander off the New England Coastline. This area of low pressure will continue to keep conditions along the immediate southern new england coast and possibly parts of the Mid Atlantic coast on the wet side. This will keep areas from Boston & northeast of there in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Further inland along the coast will still be looking at a chance of showers but they will be more isolated and scattered with temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Across NY state..temperatures should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly cloudy skies also with a chance of an isolated shower due to the cutoff low pressure off the coast.
Further to the south across PA.partly sunny skies. There could be a renegade shower or thundershower but that would be mainly areas closer to the coast... temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of the NYC area where they are closer to the influence of the low pressure where temperatures will be in the mid-upper 70s. South of the PA/MD border temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with mainly sunny skies. Enjoy the warmer weather!
If you are in an area that does not experience this warmer weather ..hang in there..once that cutoff low pulls away the warmer weather will be spreading your way!

The Question Becomes...

2009-06-22T18:40:00.004-04:00

Perhaps I am not the only one that has noticed that the past two days , at least in the southern part of the northern mid atlantic, are noticably warmer and the sun has returned, peeking out of clouds that still linger.
A couple days ago I made a post in regards to warmer weather on the horizon and that warmer weather would start to infilitrate the region on friday and build into the area a little more as each day progresses.
KABE high yesterday was 77 degrees.
KABE high temperature today was 80 degrees.
The warm up has started right on time as I thought it would and is forecasted last thru the week ahead.
The question becomes ..Can this warm up be sustained? In other words, will this warm weather last and it will finally feel like summertime or..will we revert back to the below normal and wet pattern that we have been stuck in for the month of June so far?
I think the answer lies in the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. Currently the EPO is positive and is forecasted to remain positive before going neutral. See the image above.
The problem that arises though is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO is forecasted to go negative. Generally speaking when the NAO goes negative this correlates to cooler conditions across the east coast and the northeast. The PNA is forecasted by the ensembles to be neutral for the most part.
So the NAO argues for cooler conditions, while the EPO argues for warmer conditions. Generally when the PNA is positive it means that there will be a trough (cooler and wetter) along the east coast. So as you can see thats why the question becomes whether or not the warm pattern can be sustained..

This forecaster thinks the answer is the following..As long as the EPO stays neutral to positive..this will allow a west to east flow resulting in a zonal flow. This means the air will come off of the Pacific from west to east. As long as the EPO signal stays where it is and forecasted to be this will keep the heat ridge generally in the central part of the country. With the PNA neutral and the flow west to east this will allow the warmer air to keep penetrating into the region..

Outbreak or no Outbreak?

2009-06-19T12:25:00.000-04:00

Mid day updated thoughts. Currently there is an area of moisture moving Southeast across western PA and western VA. This area has associated with it alot of clouds. So, even though the warm front has moved thru the area..and temperatures are on the climb over the region (exception New York and North) and dewpoints are in the 60s..The cloud debris could have a factor as to whether any severe weather can actually break out.
The good thing is that its still early in the day. At the moment I am thinking that PA, with the exception of the far SW corner..has a good chance at remaining out of the severe weather today. The 12 Z NAM only brings minimal CAPE into the SW corner..while the 12 Z GFS is more robust with CAPE in the SW corner of 2000-3000...
So it appears from the image that was created two days ago...that all of PA but the SW corner and NJ, and NY could be taken out of the low risk factor and/any slight risk factor....

Potential Severe Outbreak?

2009-06-18T14:55:00.002-04:00

Looking at the models for tomorrow one discovers a mid level shortwave trough moving out of the midwest and will be moving towards the great lakes. The low pressure and the associated trough will also have a trailing cold front that will move thru and across the region. It will be this cold front that will be the trigger to spark severe weather ranging from damaging winds, hail & perhaps tornado's as well, in combination with the Parameters that will be in place. CAPE actually is between 2000-4000..depending where you are located and the LI is in the range of -4 to -10..again depending on your location.

These parameters will change depending on the exact track of the low pressure system and the timing of the cold front. ATTM i have placed Eastern PA and NY in the low risk area..because the parameters are not all that impressive on the eastern side at the present time. However..this could change depending on the timing and exact track of the low pressure. So for now this is only a preliminary map.

Lightning, Thunder, Wind & Hail! Will it prevail today?

2009-06-18T13:59:00.003-04:00

A little mixed feelings when making this map. Although there is CAPE values of 1000-3000 (depending on location in the yellow zone) and even though there is deep layer shear of 35-40 knots ...and the area is in the warm sector..My current thinking is that due to the cloud cover and the rain that moved thru ..that the daytime heating will not be sufficient enough to work in tandem with the other factors in place. So for that reasoning I am only placing the area as a low risk for severe weather.

Rain & Even More Rain On the Way!

2009-06-17T00:56:00.002-04:00

Low pressure currently across Illinois is going to slowly move across the region.This low pressure will then slide off the coast of the Delmarva/or Southern Jersey area.As this low pressure moves thru the region it will push a warm front into the region during the day on wednesday. This warm front will bring some more humid air in with it along with showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will persist thru the day on thursday ending shortly after midnight thursday night (early friday morning)....
This will be the start of warmer air returning into the region of which the real warm air will be felt starting friday and especially saturday as another warm front lifts across the region with another S/W.

The Pattern-Whats Next?

2009-06-16T20:12:00.004-04:00

The Pattern, the Pattern! Been reading alot and hearing alot about the Pattern. To some it seems like winter has just extended its tentacles into springtime. To others..spring time has been exactly what springtime is suppose to be. A TRANSITION time between winter and summer. In other words, the weather can go either way as it fluctuates back and forth between the two different seasons.
So what has been going on? As you can see ..the EPO has been for quite sometime on the negative side. And you can also see looking at the PNA..that since the end of May that also has been on the positive side.
Looking back to this past winter..we had that combination quite frequently during the winter and the results were...Troughs along the east coast..ridge out west...and the EPO kept the Southeast ridge at bay! So, it should really not be a surprise as to WHY the month of June has been cooler then the month of May! If you look at the PNA for the month of May it was basically negative! Also notice how the departures for the month of May were basically warmer then normal across the NE..( Please go to the climate summary maps ) ...The month of June has featured a positive PNA (trough dominant) and negative EPO...
THE GOOD NEWS!!

As you can see looking above...All this is about to change and is actually in the process now of reversing itself. The PNA is in the process of losing its positive status and going to neutral..while the EPO is in the process of going positive..before going back towards neutral. So what does this mean? Don't let it confuse you. The same process that happens in winter also applies now.As the EPO switches to positive , and the PNA drops to neutral...this will allow a heat ridge to build into the center of the country and start to push its way off to the north and to the east.
So the results if we were to use tomorrow as the starting point of this period of pattern changing...you will notice that the humidity will slowly start to increase back into the air starting with tomorrow and the effects of this warmer air and humidity will begin to be noticable over the weekend. This is also going to increase the risk of severe weather, with the ridge pushing east and a trough along or just off the Northeast coast..So make sure that you check back for the latest on that situation.

June 15th Severe Weather Chances

2009-06-14T16:07:00.001-04:00

Looking at the GFS...it brings an area of 1000-2000 CAPE into the upper mid atlantic. The NAM also brings this area of CAPE into the same basic area in the range of 500-1500. LI is -2 to -4 ..with between 30-40 knots of shear. With daytime heating this should be sufficient enough to create instability in the atmosphere and cause showers and thunderstorms to break out across the region. This would generate nothing more then a low risk across the region.

June 13 Severe Weather Chances

2009-06-13T00:02:00.002-04:00

One can always tell when we are getting closer to summer because you start to get into this pattern where it seems like every day there is a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Many times this is caused by the daytime heating which helps to spark things off when the atmospheric conditions become unstable and favorable with different parameters in place.
Other times this scenario is caused by a persistent trough that is over the region and S/W (shortwave) after S/W moves thru the region! Usually there is a stationary front lingering across the area. Then these S/Ws follow along the stationary front..
Currently we have a stationary front that crossed thru the region earlier today and lies just to our south running parallel to the eastern seaboard (Northeastward) and then it runs south and southwestward from there. There are a few S/Ws embedded within the flow that will move thru and give the chance of showers and or thunderstorms for the day tomorrow.
Looking at the 00z NAM for the Parameters..CAPE values are anywhere from 500-1500 ...Lift index between -2 and -4. Feeling that tomorrow will be a Partly Sunny day with these Parameters in place, along with shear of 30-40 knots..the areas above will see a low risk for severe weather which would contain gusty winds and some potential hail.
The slight risk area has CAPE values of 2000-3000 so this area has a higher chance of seeing severe weather and should be the area where it is most concentrated...

June 12th Severe Chances

2009-06-12T02:31:00.002-04:00

It appears as if the moisture from tonights disturbance is just about thru the area from East Central Pennsylvania on south..and when looking at satellite it appears as though that we could have some breaks in the clouds.
Earlier today i mentioned that I thought the GFS had a better handle on the scenario and i still think that is the way to go with severe chances for later today.
With that in mind..The map above is taking more of the GFS into consideration then any other model. Next closest would be the ECM. CAPE looks to be of 1000-2000 along the eastern Seaboard into SE PA and all of MD..with the lift index of -2 to -4. Shear looks to be along the range of 30-40 knots.. This area would warrant a low risk of 5% .
Further to the south and east..the shear is less ..however..the CAPE is greater of 2000-3000 with a LI of -4 to minus 6. This area should be the greatest area to break out into sunshine..hence the greater instability and with that the greater chance of severe weather. This area would warrant a slight risk of 15 %. Main severe weather will winds and small hail!

Updated Thoughts on Severe Weather

2009-06-11T13:26:00.001-04:00

Mid day updated thoughts on severe weather..
With relatively low CAPE in place and hardly any LI in place and cloud cover and rain..this should be sufficient enough to cut down on the prospects of severe weather across the region. Its possible that there could be some embedded thunderstorms within the rainfall..but at the most anything should be garden variety type.

The highest areas of CAPE are across the VA, MD and Southern PA area in the range of 1000-2000, with the Lift Index at -2 to -4. However...when looking at satellite
You also see nothing but cloud cover over the region. This is due to a low pressure over the Eastern VA and North Carolina area, along with two other areas of low pressure over Indiana and another over Missouri.

This cloud cover should help to keep any real daytime heating from occurring..and with the rainfall will help to stabilize the atmosphere. So the best chances of severe weather would be across VA, MD, and possibly southern PA but i would put those chances in the range of 5-10%.

Severe Weather Again?

2009-06-10T15:40:00.002-04:00

Stationary front across the area will act as a boundary for low pressure to move along it. This stationary front in combination with the low pressure area will create showers and thunderstorms. Most thunderstorms will be the general variety type. However..with CAPE values between 1000-2000 and LI at -2 to -4 there is a possibility that some of them could become severe with gusty winds and some small hail. I am not forecasting anything as widespread as yesterday in coverage but rather more isolated severe possibilities and hence the reason for only a 5 % coverage.

Verification For June 9ths Severe Weather Forecast

2009-06-10T11:41:00.002-04:00

Overall very happy with the forecast that was put out on the 8th...

As far as my particular area..aside from the storm that hit in the morning yesterday which contained vivid lightning, heavy rains and thunder..the day was event free. Action had occurred off to my south and south west...

Severe Weather June 9th

2009-06-08T13:18:00.003-04:00

Severe weather chances for June 9th, Afternoon into Evening time frame.

A stationary front will linger across the area which will act as a boundary for the precipitation to train across. Low pressure which will move into the great lakes will cause a cold front to drag across the area on tuesday afternoon and evening time. This cold front will be crossing into a region with Cape Values potentially being between 3000-4000 with Lift Index of -4 to -8 depending on your exact location. Dewpoints across the region look to be in the upper 60s and perhaps into the lower 70s with daytime high temperatures in the lower 80s.
So the Parameters are in place for some severe weather that could contain damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and hail, and I would not rule out the chance of isolated tornado's. However, the best potential for this would be across the Delmarva region. The air mass that we are currently in is quite muggy and humid and this should help to intensify any storms that do form.
What could go wrong? There will be an area of precipitation that will move across the northern regions overnight tonight and the cloud debris associated with that area of precipitation could put a damper on the severe weather chances causing a more stable atmosphere. This is something that we will have to keep an eye on.
So if you live in any of these areas it would be wise to keep an eye and an ear tuned to your favorite weather source in case any watches or warnings are posted.

May Verification

2009-06-01T18:13:00.002-04:00

Aside from a small area that is -2 or greater and a few tiny patches of +3 or greater I am overall happy with this forecast once again! Junes is posted one page back on this blog and verification will come July 1st

April Verification For Temperatures

2009-05-25T18:14:00.003-04:00

Verification for the month of April turned out to be pretty spot on with the temperature outlook! Aside from one area in PA and some areas to the South being above normal instead of seasonal the outlook held up pretty well!

April 19th-22nd Abundant Rainfall

2009-04-18T20:58:00.002-04:00

Low pressure over the plain states will move northeast into the eastern great lakes. This low pressure will produce a good amount of rainfall with a widespread area approaching 2 inches and in some locales greater then 2 inches could be possible.

April 10th More Rain on the way!

2009-04-08T13:29:00.000-04:00

We have stepped into a cool and active period. Once again.. low pressure will develop over oklahoma and will move east -northeast. This low pressure will slide off to the south and the east of the region around the coast of southern NJ/ Delmarva region. This will allow precipitation to once again filter into the area in the form of rain. If this low pressure area were able to spread its moisture far enough north they could be looking at some snowfall into the northern half of Maine. At this point and time though it appears that the low pressure and the moisture associated with it will not make it that far to the north.
Rainfall does not appear to be too heavy with areas possibly receiving up to an inch in some locations.

April 6-8th Rainfall & Snow possible?

2009-04-03T16:59:00.002-04:00

Low pressure will form east of the colorado rockies. This low pressure will move east-Northeast to a position over NE Ohio by late sunday evening. At the same time it appears another wave of low pressure will develop over the Southeast and move off to the northeast and these two waves of low pressure will merge into one low pressure in the vicinity of washington DC. This low pressure will then slowly move northward parallel the coast, however...inland... This low should then proceed to slowly retrograde Northwest over NY state. This low pressure should intensify and deepen and along with very heavy rainfall ..we could also be looking at some windy conditions. As this low pressure intensifies and deepens it will pull some colder air down into parts of the region. Mainly on the west side of the low pressure area over western PA and into Ohio. These areas could be looking at rainfall turning into and ending as snowshowers/flurries. By the time the colder air moves into these areas most of the moisture will be shut off in western PA and ohio. So i am not expecting anything more then snowshowers. To the east, along the east coast and the big cities..I am expecting nothing other then heavy rain. Its also quite possible that there could be an area of severe weather. The details on that will have to be honed in on as we get closer to the event at hand....

April 3rd and 4th Rainfall

2009-04-01T16:51:00.001-04:00

Low pressure will develop over the oklahoma panhandle and will tap into an abundant supply of GOM moisture. This low pressure will then start to head off to the east and NNE to a position over western NY by late friday evening, early saturday morning. This will provide the area with another shot of much needed rainfall. At this point and time I am not really expecting any severe weather across the region.

March 28-30th Rainfall & Severe Possibilities

2009-03-27T14:33:00.002-04:00

Low pressure currently developing over TX should move off to the east and then to the NNE thru the ohio Valley and towards the great lakes area. This will pull a cold front thru the area over the weekend...late saturday night-early sunday. Abundant moisture will be available with this system as it has tapped into the GOM and will also tap into moisture from the atlantic. This will allow some much needed rainfall to come into the region again with many areas recieving an inch or greater of rainfall. Its also possible that some severe weather will occur to the south during this time period as the advancement of the cold front could trigger some strong thunderstorms.

As far as severe weather, I have the chances at 5 % because alot of any severe weather happening is going to depend on the amount of cloud debris and whether any breaks can occur. CAPE and LI is not all that impressive out ahead of the front. Its quite possible that the cloudiness will limit the severe weather.

Much Needed Rains

2009-03-25T13:38:00.003-04:00

Low pressure over Tennessee with its attendant frontal systems will move across and thru the region over the next 24-36 hrs. Mild air is out ahead of this front with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. This low pressure system will bring some much needed rain to the area and looks to be the start of what could be a very wet period. This first system does not look to bring more then .75 into western PA with amounts to a half inch possible elsewheres...

Summer outlook Released March 3, 2009

2009-03-04T16:58:00.002-05:00

Spring Outlook Issued March 3rd 2009

2009-03-04T16:30:00.002-05:00

2009 Hurricane Outlook Released March 3rd 2009

2009-03-04T15:45:00.003-05:00

Hurricane 2009 outlook produced by R.W.S. Solo Project issued March 3rd 2009

Hurricane season as we know starts June 1st and lasts until November 30th....
Last hurricane season we had an active hurricane season and once again this year i think we will have an active hurricane season as well. The question that needs to be answered is-although we have an active hurricane season will it be the pacific that is more active or the atlantic?
I think the answer lies in between the two actually. I believe this hurricane season will be active more in the atlantic due to the ENSO being in a neutral state (with la nina effects lingering) thru the first half of hurricane season and then with a weak el nino starting to build in I believe the Atlantic side will die off while the Pacific side starts to get more active.
As you can see the waters down around the Caribbean Island are quite warm ranging anywhere from 78-89 degrees

Also take note to the fact that we already have Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in that same area..
Currently this is a small area, however..it is also early and this should continue to grow in coverage as we get closer to hurricane season of June 1st. Remember with TCHP you need around or above 80 for best potential to develop.
So with that said my forecast is as follows:

I am expecting a total of 16 storms to form...
8 of which will become hurricanes
5 of which will become major hurricanes.

This is my 2nd year at attempting to forecast the hurricane season. Last years verification did not turn out to bad for being my very first attempt.

Main storm tracks...posted above along with impact areas
Notice I only concentrated for impact areas along the eastern side of the USA. Also the Caribbean would also be under the impact zone but again i just limited for map purposes to the USA.

November 16th Weather Discussion

2008-11-16T03:02:00.001-05:00

November 16th Weather Discussion

Lets start off with the weather. Snowshowers are going to be possible across western PA into the northern tier of PA and maybe even sneak down into East central Pa in the afternoon. Any moisture left over in Western NY will also change over to snowshowers. Further to the north in northern New england will be rainfall and still the chance of showers in southern new england by afternoon.
Say goodbye to the warm weather that we have been experiencing as reality and actually below reality comes to fruition. Temperatures today are not going to be on the rise all that much...and in some cases might even stay steady or slowly drop off thru out the day. Southern New England will have temps in the low to mid 50s as well as those south of the PA/MD border line.
Interior regions into east central Pa and NJ will be looking at temps mainly in the mid to upper 40s. Further to the west into western PA temps will be in the lower to mid 30s. Western NY upper 30s to lower 40s..Mountains of West VA will be lucky to get out of the mid 20s.
All in all a very cold day on tap weather wise with gusty winds as well. Skies for the most part should be partly to mostly cloudy.

November 15th Weather Discussion

2008-11-15T02:31:00.000-05:00

November 15th Weather Discussion...

There is really only one word to sum up the weather for today! And that is the same word that has summed up the weather for the past two days. Rain! Rain! And more Rain! Cold front advancing towards the area is going to trigger an abundance of rain! In many areas from the posting of this forecast thru tomorrow night will pick up anywhere from 1-2 inches of rain and possibly more! There is also the potential for thunderstorms and strong gusty winds with the passing of the cold front. Look for a sharp drop in temperatures when this front crosses your area. You will go from no jacket weather to jacket weather in a hurry. By late in the night places in Western PA particularly in the mountains may change from rain to snow..after having a high temperature early morning hours in the mid-upper 50s.

That brings me to temperatures...Temperatures out ahead of the front will range from the low 60s to upper 60s up and down the coast from southern New England thru Eastern PA and into NJ to as much as the low 70s south of the PA /MD border. Interior regions of New England will be looking at temps from the mid 50s-lower 60s. Western PA will start with temps in the mid-upper 50s but then slowly drop thru out the day. Once the front passes..please if you are outside make sure that you bundle up! Enjoy the wild ride ahead for today!

Map Issued quite a few days ago!

2008-11-15T02:03:00.003-05:00

This map was issued quite a few days ago for the rain event that covered the 12th to the 15th...

I am still liking these rainfall totals although if i had to change anything i would shift the 2 inch line to the west into western PA...

November 13 Weather Discussion

2008-11-13T02:30:00.001-05:00

November 13th Weather Discussion

I like to try and keep these discussions as simple and precise as possible for those who are reading and following them. So with that thought in mind there is two words that sum up todays weather ...Cloudy and rain! Today will feature those conditions. So if you are out and about make sure you have an umbrella with you.
Temperatures will be in the mid 40s in Northern New England to upper 40s to low 50s along the southern New england coast. In the interior region we will be looking at temperatures from the low 50s to the mid 50s south of the PA/MD border and possibly lower to mid 60s in the Norfolk area.

November 12th Weather Discussion

2008-11-12T01:09:00.001-05:00

November 12th Weather Discussion

For the most part today is going to be a cloudy day. I am thinking there is a chance for some scattered showers in the morning and afternoon hours but these would mainly be the hit or miss type showers. Majority of the region should be dry but chilly. This will all change later by evening time as light rainfall should move into PA and NJ between 7 PM and 10 mm but the steadier and heavier rains will not move in till after midnight.
As far as temperatures they should be mainly in the lower and upper 40s across New England..the upper 40s to lower 50s across PA into NJ and the mid 50s to near 60 south of the PA/MD border.

November 10th Weather Discussion

2008-11-10T02:03:00.001-05:00

November 10th Weather Discussion...

Thru the early part of today areas of Western Pa, Western NY and parts of Northern New england (especially the mountains) will be experiencing snowshowers. Southern New England may see some scattered showers...These snowshowers should continue thru most of the day into the evening time, especially in your lake effect areas. Other areas should break out into partly to mostly sunny skies...However..do not expect the sunshine to warm things up.
Temperatures will continue to be on the chilly side and below normal in most areas. Temperatures below the PA/MD borders should be mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Along the coast of Southern New England, temperatures will max out in the lower 50s. Interior regions, lower 40s to upper 40s. except for western PA where temperatures will range in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Mountains of west VA will not make it out of the lower 30s today! Its going to be quite chilly in many places and in many places quite below normal.
The only saving grace is the early morning lows might not make it as cold as what they want do to the cloud cover that is currently in place at the time of writing. However..if those clouds break then temperatures might go lower then forecasted over the Eastern side of PA and into NJ....