Real Wx Solutions!

July 20th Weather Discussion CAR to the East, Trough to the West

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 00:36:00 +0000

July 20th Weather Discussion

CAR to the East, Trough to the West

The weather today will basically be another pleasant day across the region. For the most part the day should be dry. The trough that has been situated over the Great Lakes is going to start to lift off to the northeast. Meanwhile the CAR (Central Atlantic Ridge) will begin to start to move towards the west. The skies should mainly be partly sunny across the region but there could be a shower or thunderstorm across the region any given time during the afternoon and or evening.
As far as temperatures are concerned across the region..mid 70s to around 80 in the state of Maine. Across the interior northeast mid 70s to around 80. Into southern new england and SE PA into NJ, low to mid 80s. To the south of the PA/MD line lower 80s. Western PA in the 70-80 range. All and all should be a relatively, dry and pleasant day.

July 19th High temp @ KABE 80

July 21st Severe Weather Potential

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 23:57:00 +0000

PARAMETERS CAPE 1000-2000
LI-2 to -6
Lapse Rates 5.5-6.5
800-300 MB Shear 25-30 knots

Triggers..

Mean trough situated over the Great Lakes starting to lift out to the Northeast..S/Ws or impulses embedded within the flow around the trough..CAR (Central Atlantic Ridge) stretching towards the east coast providing a warm and increasingly humid air mass along the east coast and slightly inland...
At this point and time I am not expecting alot of reports but rather more isolated in nature!

Daily Discussion For July 19th We have stopped sliding:) Its about time!

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 23:46:00 +0000

Daily Discussion For July 19th

We have stopped sliding:) Its about time!
There is one word to sum up todays weather! Pleasant!If you like weather that consists of sunny skies and if you like weather that consists of pleasantly warm temperatures, then you are going to want to go outside and do your favorite activity out under the sun! Because that is what todays weather will feature! Sunny skies.

Temperature wise across the region will also be very pleasant. Across the interior regions of the NE up into the state of Maine temperatures will be between 70-80. Further south across Southern New England into Se PA 80-85, except for Cape Cod in the 70s. Further to the west in western PA.. 70-80. South of PA..on the western side 70-80. On the eastern side...looks like mid 80s.

High temp july 18th @ KABE 78

July 18th Daily Discussion

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 02:12:00 +0000

July 18th Daily Discussion

Going to tbe bottom of the Chute? Depends Where You Are!

Some of us will be going to the bottom..still others of us have started to slide..however...being held up from sliding completely to the bottom. So what does this mean? What is on tap for today?
Well, across the northern New England area..this is one region that has never actually climbed the ladder and once again they are stuck at the bottom of a chute. Their region once again will have the best chance for showers and thundershowers as impulses rotate around the ULL and keep their region wet and cooler then normal. For this region-summer has still yet to happen.
Further to the south..I believe most regions will wake up to cloudy skies...giving away to partial clearing. Sunshine by the afternoon should be pretty much felt all over but the northern regions (NNE)...I would not rule out the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm but by and far the majority of the region will be dry!
Temperatures are also going to be a contrast as well. Up across Maine temperatures will be in the low 60s to lower 70s. The rest of NNE into interior NY into central PA..temperatures will be in the 70-80 range. Southern New England into SE PA/NJ, low to mid 80s. Western PA...ones that have hit the bottom...60 to around 70. Further to the south... below the PA/MD border-eastern side mid to upper 80s to near 90..Western side...70-80. All and all it will be a pretty pleasant day with lower humidity across the region! Until tomorrow!

July 17th High @ KABE 85 degrees

Severe Weather Potential for July 17th

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:04:00 +0000

A cold front moved across the region yesterday during the afternoon and evening. This cold front has stalled to the south and has become stationary. This stationary front during the afternoon into the evening will back up into the area as a warm front. This will bring some warmer air across the eastern side with temps in the 80s. Meanwhile another cold front will be approaching the region late on friday.
Along the original stationary front a wave of low pressure will develop. This low pressure area looks to move over Southeast PA before moving to the east and dissipating.
CAPE levels are marginal at best with 500-1500 generally being the range and the LI is anywhere from 0 to -4, which again is very marginable. However...shear looks to be decent across the area once again with 30 knots + and lapse rates are on the order of 6.0-7.0 across the region.
With another cold front approaching the region this could serve off as a trigger to support severe weather. Best area for severe weather will be southern sections....

July 17th Weather Discussion Falling down the Chute!

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:46:00 +0000

July 17th Weather Discussion

Falling down the Chute!

Today is going to be like falling down the chute in the game of Chutes and Ladders. Or perhaps sliding down a candy cane in Candy Land. However..you want to describe it..temperatures are going to take a step back compared to yesterday! Yesterday was indeed a day that felt like summer! Hot & Humid! KABE made it to 88 at the airport, Philadelphia 91..Hellertown PA , where i was yesterday-93! It was hot!
Today, the weather once again will become more "pleasant" but with pleasant comes cooler temperatures. Well, pleasant will not apply across the usual areas of Northern and Central NJ as they will be facing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. The rest of us should be under Partly Sunny Skies...Slightly less humidity along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. However..i feel the day will be mainly rain free!
Temperatures across the region ..upper 60s to mid 70s across Maine...Across the rest of Northern and Central new england 70-80..Further south into southern New England...into south east and south central PA..low to mid 80s..Further west across western Pa 70-80. To the south of PA/MD Mid to upper 80s.

July 16th Weather Discussion At the top of the Ladder-Looking Down!

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:12:00 +0000

July 16th Weather Discussion

At the top of the Ladder-Looking Down!

Once again the weather has taken us to the top of the ladder and we stand looking down as we get ready to take a plunge. However..before we take that plunge we have some heat & humidity to deal with. The weather today is going to be the result of a warm front pushing thru the region bringing heat and humidity to the area. This warm front however will be followed by a cold front later in the evening. The result of the warm & humid air and the strong cold front approaching spells out=thunderstorms. To find out whether they are going to be severe in your area, please see the appropiate thread :)
As far as temperatures are concerned, we will be looking at warmer air across the majority of the region. There always seems to be an exception to this and once again mother nature will not let us down to that exception.That exception will be northern new england where the temperatures will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Heading towards the Southeast into Southern New England, temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Travelling further to the south to NYC and then into east central PA and SE PA into NJ temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s and it is not out of the question that some locations could exceed the 80s and hit 90. Keep in mind that dewpoints will be in the 60s to near 70 so it is going to feel like we are stuck in the muck. To the west into western PA and western NY upper 70s to mid 80s. To the south of the PA/MD border..Mid 80s to lower 90s.
If you are out and about travelling or doing outdoor activities today...Keep an eye to the sky and with the humidity levels keep a bottle of water on you at all times. Dehydration is quite common on days like today! Otherwise enjoy the weather!

High temperature July 15th @ KABE was 83

Pattern Update for the week of the 19-25th

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 23:28:00 +0000

More Out of the box thinking on the pattern for the week of the 19th-25th of July...

Where we are at currently..and then going :)

Currently we have a ridge buiding into the region with the zonal flow becoming dominant for the rest of today into friday. At the same time we have another powerful trough with its attending cold front moving thru the region for the weekend. This trough looks to amplify and produce cooler temperatures once again across the Northeast region. However..this time around...there is a different player on the field. While the trough amplifies over the Northeast..the CAR steps onto the field and starts to move westward. For those that do not know, CAR=Central Atlantic Ridge....
Current thinking is that the Central Atlantic ridge will progress westward and will cause the trough over the Northeast to lift up and kind of "retrograde" back over the west-central Great lakes region. This will allow the coolest of air to be centered over the GL region into perhaps western areas of the NE. Meanwhile, along the east coast...a southwesterly flow will set up and bring warmer air up the east coast. The timing on this looks to start taking place around the monday -tuesday time frame. At this time then it looks like the CAR could potentially become the dominant player.
Two effects this would have on the weather.
1. Great Lakes region to the western parts of the NE will experience the cooler weather.
2. To the east of the trough..southwesterly flow will cause warmer air to ride up along the coast and slightly inland.
This could set up a good potential for severe weather with the trough set up over the GL region.

So in a sense the TZT will continue but with an additional player involved and the trough located further west..
The question that needs to be answered and will work on this over the days ahead..is..does the CAR evolve into a WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) ..and if so..when?

Day 1 Severe Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:04:00 +0000

Day 1 outlook..I have broken down this map into two sections. The latest guidance is suggesting that the better parameters will be further east.

Essentially warm and humid air is building into the region as I am typing this. Just came back from a walk and its quite muggy for only being 79 degrees as of 1 PM...this is due to a warm front approaching the region..this warm front will push thru the region and be followed by a cold front. Cold front associated with a trough that will be once again heading into the Northeast..This clashing of air masses is going to create what could potentially be a decent severe weather outbreak along the east coast.
Latest NAM has CAPE values of 1500-2500 over eastern PA stretching into central NY and then moving east by 00z tomorrow (thursday evening) into the NYC area. Lapse rates between 6,0 and 6.5 with Bulk shear of 30 knots +..Dewpoints will also be in the 60s to near 70. All this spells potential for hail and damaging winds.

July 15th Weather Discussion Game of chutes & Ladders..Is this CandyLand?

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 02:40:00 +0000

July 15th Weather Discussion
Game of chutes & Ladders..Is this CandyLand?

Once again folks we are essentially going to start climbing a ladder temperature wise. However, before I get to the temperatures , lets talk about the weather. Another pleasant day on tap. Mostly sunny skies should be the result of the weather across the region. However, dewpoints will be on the rise and a warm front will be approaching the region. With this warm front approaching the region..there is an outside chance of showers and thunderstorms. However...most of the region should be rain free majority of the time.
Temperature wise mid 60s to low 70s thru the state of Maine. Mid to upper 70z thru out the rest of Northern and central New England. Heading further south and east into Southern New England temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low to mid 80s across SE PA into NJ and then westwards thru out central and western PA. South of the PA/MD border highs in the mid and upper 80s ..with some locales touching 90 degrees.
So basically another pleasant day on tap. However...starting to climb the ladder. Now most times we have climed the ladder..a few days later the temps fell thru the Chute. Stay tuned to find out if we fall thru the Chute and when we fall thru the Chute.
Daytime high for July 14th was 78 degrees @KABE

July 16th Severe Weather Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:04:00 +0000

At this point and time after viewing the latest guidance between the NAM & GFS & latest SREF..I see no reason to change the map other then stepping up the day 3 outlook to day 2..

July 14th Daily Weather Discussion We Tap Another Pleasant Day In The TZT Pattern

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 00:33:00 +0000

July 14th Daily Weather Discussion

We Tap Another Pleasant Day In The TZT Pattern

Another beautiful day of weather is on tap for the majority of the region. The only exception to this rule will be Northern New England. Unfortunately, they have been too close to the vicinity of the troughs and S/W's that set up residence over Southeast Canada. So this being the case there temperatures will be cooler and they have the chance showers and thunderstorms once again.
For the rest of the area it will be mostly sunny skies and pleasantly warm or pleasantly cool weather conditions.
As far as temperatures are concerned...The NW side of NY, up thru VT, NH into Maine will be in the 60-70 range. The mountains might not get out of the 40s. Yep, believe it or not it is July. Southern side of Maine upper 60s to lower 70s. Heading south interior NY, low to mid 70s..Over to the east in Southern New England..upper 70s to lower 80s. Further to the south into SE PA, east central PA, NJ..low to mid 80s. Further south below the PA/MD border along the eastern side mid to upper 80s. To the west below the border, upper 70s to mid 80s.Western Pa..70-80. The weather has been serving us up some lovely days so I hope you enjoy them as much as i have! Until tomorrow!
July 13th High temp @ KABE 79

July 16th Severe Potential Zone

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 23:48:00 +0000

This situation reminds me of the situation that we just went thru a few days ago. A vigours S/W will be moving across Southern Canada...with its attending trough and attending cold front. Meanwhile out ahead of the cold front...once again warm & humid air will be spreading its way to the north and east, say thank you to a ridge building into the region on tuesday and wednesday. The air behind this front is going to be cooler with the air out ahead of it. Anywhere from 10-20 degrees difference depending on where you reside in the Northeast. The clashing of the two air masses once again is going to present a severe weather potential. Once again I do not expect the warmest of air to make its way to Northern Maine..so for the time being I have left them out of the potential severe zone.

At the moment I am also not focusing too much on the Parameters because just as the last time, they will change back and forth between now and then. This is my day 3 outlook and there is potential that this could just become my Day 1 outlook!

Isolated Severe for July 13th

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:12:00 +0000

After evaluating the 00z NAM and the 00z GFS...both models seem to want to put across a very low chance of severe weather in two different areas....The NAM is showing capes of around 500-1500 range while the GFS is showing 1000-2000 range in SE PA...
While..my personal thought are that the secondary front that will be coming thru is going to be weak..the GFS does have decent LI -2 to -6...Decent Lapse rates...6.5-7.0 and also decent shear.. 35=40 knots across the area. The GFS & NAM both develop a S/W to the south of the PA/MD border and move it ENE off the coast. While the above is decent-there really is not all that much of a trigger but with the cold pool of air aloft...a trough in the vicinity...and a secondary front coming thru..it is possible that with the day time heating, especially along the SNE coast from NYC to southern Jersey and delaware that there could be some isolated storms that contain hail.
I am certainly not expecting a large amount of reports...quite possibly there will not be any reports but at the same time I also do not want to get burned by not doing a map.

So lets see how this works out!
Up in the state of Maine..i think the main threat will be heavy rain with any stronger cells that develop there in association with the front coming thru and the S/W in the vicinity of Southeastern Canada, spinning and rotating around.

July 13th Weather Discussion Were we here before? Indeed we were!

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:15:00 +0000

July 13th Weather Discussion

Were we here before? Indeed we were!

There is some truth to the saying that weather has a habit of repeating itself. Thats exactly what is going on right now. I have been referring to it as TZT (trough&zonal&trough) . We have a trough currently over the region. However, this trough is situated more over southeast Canada while its influences are being felt in the northeast. All this essentially leads to a pleasant day most everywhere, but, you guessed it northern new england. This is because they are situated closer to the trough so they continue the chance at scattered showers and perhaps some thunder. The rest of us will essentially be enjoying sunny skies.
Temperature wise will continue to be below normal across the northern viewing area with temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s. Southern New England to East Central Pa and south east PA low to mid 80s. Interior regions of NY and western PA..low 70s to around 80. South of PA/MD border mid and upper 80s. Get outside and enjoy this absolutely gorgeous weather!

July 12th high temperature at KABE was 78

Pattern Update for Week Of July 12th-19th

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 15:59:00 +0000

Theres no doubt in my mind that this July has the potential to go down as one of the coolest Julys across parts of the northeast into the Mid Atlantic. This being due to the persistancy of trough-zonal-trough or what I will refer to as TZT. This TZT pattern looks to continue over the forseeable future with perhaps a change towards the last 10 days of the month.

As previously mentioned a mid level ridge would build into the region bringing more warm and humid air. And then this mid level ridge would be then followed with another trough that would situate itself over SE Canada and then amplify and effect parts of the Northeast.. This is where we are at currently with what is happening.

Looking into the forseaable future it looks like this TZT is going to continue..The next couple days look to consist of mainly a zonal pattern with this trough situated over SE CANADA into the northeast and northern Mid Atlantic. This trough looks to start to move out and will be replaced again by a ridge that should start to build into the region Tuesday to Wednesday this week. This ridge again will cause the warmth and humidity to once again come into the mid atlantic and the northeast. However, by the weekend another trough of low pressure is going to head across the southern tier of Canada and amplify and once again effect the northeast with cooler temperatures. So essentially what we are dealing with is a TZT pattern and thru the next 10 days this looks to continue...
So essentially the breakdown looks like this over the next ten days....
Northern & Central New England will remain below normal fluctuating to seasonal when mid level ridges build in.
Southern New England will remain seasonal to below normal with potential to be above normal with ridges.
Northern Mid Atlantic seasonal to slightly below to slightly above possible with ridges
Southern Mid Atlantic seasonal to slightly above normal..
This pattern potentially looks to break in the last 10 days of the month..however..thats the really long range and do not want to speculate at this point out that far.

July 11th Weather Discussion Lets reverse shall we?

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 05:12:00 +0000

July 12th Weather Discussion

Lets reverse shall we?

By the time the majority of us wake up this morning, the cold front that was bringing the severe weather to parts of the region will be off or just along the coast. Dewpoints will drop back into the 40s...sunshine will increase in all areas except CAPE COD and Vermont/NH northwards where they will still be experiencing showers and possible t storms. The rest of the region will be enjoying another pleasant day of weather.
Temperatuures will remain below normal across Northern New England with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Further south across southern new england, temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s and that will extend all the way to Southeast Pa. Further to the south (below PA/MD line) the mid to upper 80s. Interior regions of NY and PA, mid to upper 70s.

July 11th high temp @ KABE was 78

Severe Weather Verification For July 10th

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 03:51:00 +0000

Severe weather is winding down across the region. There are still a few cells that have warnings attached to them. However...the hour of midnight is fast approaching and the 11th will be here.

When I first started discussing in this thread the models were originally showing the front to proceed faster then what it actually ended up. From the beginning i was quite adamant about the pattern shaping up to be consisting of a mid level ridge with warm humid air coming into the region. Temperatures hit anywhere from the mid 70s to the mid 80s depending on your location. The dewpoints rose into the mid 60s to near 70 in some locations making the air feel quite soupy in those locations. I was also adamant about explosive development occurring out ahead of the cold front as the trough dropped down into the region. The timing of the front caused me to re-evaluate things out at day 3, which at that time i created a day 3 outlook map. As the days grew closer to the actual event..i kept the day 3 outlook map as Day 2 and then finally as Day 1. Evaluation showed nothing had to be changed. Although, the original timing was off...the pattern recognition from 9-10 days out ended up being correct.
Last night there was talk about a S/W spreading overnight into parts of the region and i mentioned that it was going to have no play on the outcome today because the outcome would be clouds overnight keeping temps from dropping and then moving out to allow for sunshine to start the day. Nowcasting observations showed behind that energy was clear skies until you got closer to the cold front. This allowed daytime heating to occur..sending the temperatures and dewpoints up.
So, while the original timing was off by two days...the pattern recognition and the outcome was what was called for, anticipated and expected. Explosive development had occurred causing potentially (2) tornados. So overall, I am quite happy with the outcome, despite the original timing call.

July 11th Discussion Heat & Humidity on the rise..Are you surprised?

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:09:00 +0000

July 11th Discussion
Heat & Humidity on the rise..Are you surprised?

Southerly flow will be over the area today ahead of an advancing cold front. Looking at the IR satellite last evening..high cirrus clouds were moving across the region..however..they looked like they were thinning out and the humidity was on the increase towards the north. Essentially what that means for today is that it will feel more soupy! Skies should begin partly cloudy across the region..however..high thin clouds will be on the approach thru out the day in advance of the cold front. This cold front is going to once again cause showers and thunderstorms to break out across the region..so keep an eye to the sky as some of them will turn severe. Best chances for severe across the western regions.
Temperatures across the area ..Mid-Upper 70s across central and northern New England into Maine...Southern New England temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Further south..across PA..east central and southeast PA into NJ temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s... western PA in the upper 70s to lower 80s (subject to change depending on warm front could be in the middle 80s) to south of PA in the mid to upper 80s to some locations near 90!
Once again because of the cool summer so far tomorrows temperatures in the 80s with higher humidity will feel warmer then it really is. Please keep water on you if you are doing anything outside.

July 10th High temperature @ KABE 80

July 11th Severe Weather Potential

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 03:51:00 +0000

After viewing the latest SREF..I see no reason to change this map which was originally a day 3 outlook! Greatest potential for severe weather will be across the western part of the zone!

July 10th Weather Discussion Heat & Humidity on the Rebound

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:46:00 +0000

July 10th Weather Discussion
Heat & Humidity on the Rebound

If you have been enjoying the weather the last few days..today will be one more day to enjoy when it comes to pleasant weather. However, some areas will start to feel an increase in air temperature as well as humidity as winds switch from the east to the south. Usually when winds switch around to the south this signifies a return to warmer weather. With warmth also comes humidity & humidity will also be on the increase.
As far as the weather is concerned, another rain free day will be on tap across the region. Partly to mostly sunny skies across the region will allow the sun to shine and daytime heating to occur.
If you live in the state of Maine you are going to think "Finally summer is here" as the temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 80s! After being in the 60s for so long, yesterday and today probably are going to feel "superwarm" compared to what you are use to this summer season. For if any area has not had a summer it is there.
Further south across southern New England and interior new england..upper 70s to lower 80s, with the exception of along the immediate coast the lower to middle 70s. Further south across PA the lower to middle 80s. South of PA will also enjoy lower to middle 80s! Today would be a good day if you like to swim to go hit the swimming pools. As always enjoy the weather!

High temperature July 9th @ KABE 78

Pattern Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:32:00 +0000

Essentially a difference of opinions..ECM amplifies another trough over the Northeast and the eastern states in the 8-10 day mean. Meanwhile the GFS keeps a trough over SE canada with reaching influence into the Northeast but more or less flattens out to more of a zonal flow...The ECM at 12 Z is different from last nights 00z. 00z ECM was more progressive..it still brought a trough into the Northeast but it also was lifting it out faster. The GFS meanwhile moves the trough across the US/Canadian border and then to SE Canada and then it amplifies over the Northeast..Then this trough lingers in SE Canada keeping Northern and Central New England on the cooler side of the temperature scenario.
So with different model outlooks and interpretations..Which model to believe? Essentially the answer to that question is neither.. A blend of the two solutions would work out best when considering the teleconnections.
Looking at the NAO above. The NAO is still negative but is starting to "loosen up" and is starting to move more towards neutral and then by the end of the period actually is forecasted to go on the positive side of neutral.

Meanwhile the PNA, looking at the chart above..is neutral and expected to stay neutral throughout the nearterm and the extended.

EPO meanwhile is neutral, looking at the chart above and expected to go negative before heading back to neutral once again
So teleconnections wise would essentially point to a zonal flow across the region. Systems moving west to east and air coming off the pacific.
Temperature wise across the region...Northern New England and Central New England look to stay seasonal to below seasonable. Southern New England around seasonal. PA & Points south look to be in the range of seasonal to slightly above seasonal.

Update on Upcoming Severe Weather Potential

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:40:00 +0000

Depending on the timing of the cold front this potential zone could shift to the east. As of right now this looks like the potential zone for the best chances of severe weather. An upper level ridge building into the area and high pressure moving off the coast late in the day on friday will cause winds to switch around to the south. This is going to allow warm air and more humid air to filter into the region courtesy of a warm front approaching from the south. Depending on how far north this warm front progresses will determine how warm the air gets.

Meanwhile a strong S/W with its attending closed low will be moving across Canada, along with an attending trough that will be digging over the midwest into the Great Lakes region. This will cause a cold front to come thru the region into the very warm & more humid air. ATM the timing appears that it will be crossing the region in the Satuday night time frame. Then this cold front should drop to the south of the area during the overnight hours into sunday. Models are hinting that there could be overnight convection as well Saturday night. The severe weather threat will then shift to the south on Sunday...

July 9th Weather Discussion Another Pleasant Day On Tap Before Heat & Humidity Strike Back!

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 00:40:00 +0000

July 9th Weather Discussion

Another Pleasant Day On Tap Before Heat & Humidity Strike Back!

Another pleasant day of weather is on tap for the majority of the region. I also think that the majority of the region will be rain free. This will allow the temperatures to slightly modify across the far northern areas. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with just the slightest chance of a shower over central New England.
Temperatures in Maine look to warm into the 70s. A little further south into central New England temps will also be in the low to mid 70s. Further to the south and east into southern New England, upper 60s along the immediate coastline to mid 70s further from the coast. Interior regions look to be in the upper 70s and from SE PA into SC PA temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. To the south of the PA/ MD border low to mid 80s! Enjoy this pleasant day of weather as friday starts the return to more humid weather :)

Daytime high on July 8th was 74 unseasonably cool in KABE

July 8th Weather Discussion Pleasant Day To The South!

noreply@blogger.com (Ilovesnow2007) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 04:02:00 +0000

July 8th Weather Discussion

Pleasant Day To The South!

The weather todays is going to be basically the same as it has been the past couple days. From Pa and points south..the weather will be basically pleasant. There is an outside chance of a shower/thundershower but for the most part skies will be partly sunny! From NNY into central and southern & northern new england..there is a better chance for showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe from an occluded front in the region.
Temperatures in Northern New York into Northern New England and Maine will be in the 60-70 range once again. To the south in southern New England mid 70's to around 80. Further south into SE PA into South Central Pa in the lower 80s. Elsewhere into the interior regions of NY and Western PA temperatures in the 70-80 range..While south of the PA/MD border temperatures will be in the 80-90 range...Enjoy the pleasant weather as the pleasant weather continues!